The Contender Series is marching this week, with light heavy weights and flying weights between the weight classes in action. 25 contracts have so far been awarded on DWCS 2025, with four more hunters welcomed in the UFC in week 6. Will week 7 similar success?
We have the breakdown and predictions of this week to go! Read on for episode 7 of Tuesday evening.
Light heavyweight, Rafael Tobias (13-1) vs. Jair de Oliveira (6-0)
Remarkable
- Oliveira would be the shortest 205er in the UFC if it were signed.
- Both have victories through KO/TKO, entry and decision
- Both have a combined 13 first round finishes
- Oliveira goes to 205
- Oliveira has no victory for someone with a winning record, nor under 30
- Oliveira has five finishes all in the round one
- Tobias will be five centimeters longer
- Both guys you probably saw fighting in your local supermarket
Rafael Tobias
Advantages:
-Fysical strong
-Credible Jiu-Jitsu
-Heavy soil and pound
-Paling threat
Disadvantages:
-Lacks head movement
-Fillable in exchanges
-Chinderkin
Another questionable selection of the matchmakers, Rafael Tobias comes in with a shiny 13-1 record in just 22 years old but the CV does not keep a close look at. Most of his fights have been in small Brazilian promotions with little accessible tape, and one time he got into competition, at LFA, he was eliminated in the second round by what I would call a proven but low level. He has never been successful in a cage that I judge, and that is concerned when having thirteen victories.
Tobias is messy on the feet. He throws a decent volume and carries good power, but his technique is sloppy and his defense is a great liability. His head does not move, he invests over strikes and he is already eliminated once.
He is invoiced as a grappler, but his actual level is unclear. Most of his Takedowns come from Body-Lock Reizen in the CLINCH, and his struggles don’t look strong enough to get consistent fights in the mat. Even if he does that, his wrestling has shown holes – he has been swept by lesser opponents, and many of the submissions he has picked up have come to fighters who should not be in the first place.
Jair de Oliveira
Advantages:
-Finizer
Disadvantages:
-Light weight fighting in light heavyweight
Matchmakers should be ashamed when they bring in boys like this. They just look at his record and say, “Of course, why not?”. They don’t look in their fights, nor do they do no legwork at all. Sometimes very lazy, and that can be seen. Oliveira is a 5’9 ″ 205er that is fighting on heavyweight. He is decent athletic, but hits the sky to connect. The best man he has defeated is a 5’7 ″ 37-year-old. They really grab straws when it comes to central weight and up, but it should be important to know that giving undeserved guys like this will only harm your product in the future instead of helping it.
Prediction: If I went into a Tobias fight, I thought who he could fight, a chance. He should run through Oliveira. With how poor Tobias is, at least he is in the right weight class and has potential to be half decent in the future. He has the chance to get caught when he strikes, but has a wide open path when he is struggling – roads, stronger and more technology. Tobias should win by one in the first round one, and other than that, it is a loss for Tobias. Anyway, it’s not really a victory.
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