It is becoming increasingly likely that MacKenzie Gore will be on the Nationals Opening Day roster. Those odds only increased when the Mets traded for Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. The number of teams desperate for a starting pitcher is dwindling by the day. With that in mind, it really feels like MacKenzie Gore gets the ball on opening day.
This season I mainly operated under the assumption that Gore would be dealt with. The southpaw only has two years of team control left, and it seems unlikely the Nats will be true contenders in the next year or two. Gore is also a client of Scott Boras, making an extension unlikely.
When you consider these factors, not trading Gore feels like a risk. Pitchers today are more at risk of injury than ever. Tommy John Surgery looms like a dark cloud for pitchers. If Gore suffers a major injury, his value would be gone. However, Paul Toboni seems willing to take that risk.
There is some benefit to keeping Gore. If he has a strong first half, his trade value could increase at the deadline. It’s also possible that the Nats surprise some people, although I don’t think Toboni is counting on that. To me, sticking with Gore feels like a big risk.
Teams clearly needed starting pitchers on the trade market this season. Shane Baz, Edward Cabrera and Freddy Peralta have all had impressive returns. Peralta is the best pitcher in the group, but only has one year of control. That didn’t stop the Mets from giving up several top 100 prospects.
One of my favorite analysts, Lance Brozdowski, wondered if that package would have been enough to get Gore. A package with Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat would have definitely excited me. Sproat is a high floor arm that should be in the center of the rotation piece. Williams is a potential spark plug at the top of a lineup.
Most baseball fans, myself included, view Peralta as a much better pitcher than Gore. He’s certainly proven himself more, with multiple All-Star appearances and a top 5 finish in NL Cy Young voting last year. Brozdowski actually said he thinks they are projecting in the same way in 2026, which really surprised me.
When you look at some of the advanced numbers, though, you start to see his point. Over the past two seasons, Gore has a FIP of 3.64, while Peralta’s FIP sit at 3.90. Peralta had a 2.70 ERA with a 3.64 FIP last year, while Gore had a 4.17 ERA with a 3.74 FIP. It certainly seems like Peralta is a regression candidate. I was going to take Peralta next year, but it’s closer than I first thought.
With the Mets out of the Gore sweepstakes and February approaching, it certainly feels like MacKenzie Gore is a Nat. There have been several reports that the asking price for Gore is sky-high. Yankees reporter Jack Curry said the Bronx Bombers have talked about Gore but have been deterred by the asking price.
This report came out a few days ago, which is interesting. The Yankees traded for Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers about a week ago. I thought the trade would take them out of the mix for Gore. However, this does not seem to be true. Gore has proven to be much more durable than Weathers, so it appears the Yankees want more security.
The Yankees were also rumored to be involved with Peralta, so Gore could be the backup option. However, they don’t have much incentive to back down from their demands considering they already have Weathers.
Other potential candidates include teams like the Giants and the A’s. Prying first baseman Bryce Eldridge away from the Giants would be a dream scenario. The Nats desperately need first base help and Eldridge is a local product. However, it doesn’t appear the Giants put him on the table, as that deal likely would have already been done if he had.
The A’s are a team that has intrigued me for a while. They have a playoff-caliber lineup, but a weak rotation. Gore would give them an arm at the top of the rotation, something they currently don’t have. It also fits within their budget. They also have plenty of young talent for the Nats to choose from.
However, I don’t think we’ll see another Gore trade this winter. I was confident this would happen, but as we get closer to Spring Training without a deal, it feels less likely. Personally, I think the Nats should trade him, but I understand they don’t want to settle. Paul Toboni is taking a risk here, but it could pay off.
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