In the last mid-December “ChainCheck” reportVanEck’s digital asset analysts painted a nuanced picture: While on-chain activity remains weak, liquidity conditions are improving and speculative leverage appears to be recovering, providing cautious optimism for long-term holders.
The company highlighted the contrasting behavior between different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been actively buying the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC – their biggest addition since July – pushing total holdings above one million BTC.
This contrasts with Bitcoin Exchange Traded Product (ETP) investors, who have reduced their exposure, underscoring a shift toward corporate accumulation versus retail-led speculation.
Analysts at VanEck noted that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, including issuing preferred stock instead of common stock, to finance purchases and operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.
Onchain data also revealed a difference between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, indicating profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched.
VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or shorter-term participants are shedding assets, while the oldest cohorts remain convinced of Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin miners are facing a declining hashrate
Miners, meanwhile have confronted a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, VanEck said – the sharpest decline since April 2024 – as high-capacity operations in regions such as Xinjiang reduced production under regulatory pressure. Breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have also fallen, due to tighter profit margins.
Historically, however, VanEck notes that falling hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator: periods of declining network power have often preceded positive returns over a 90- to 180-day period.
The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations.
Under this lens, improving liquidity and accumulation through DATs are counterbalancing softer on-chain metrics, including stagnant new addresses and declining transaction fees.
Broader macro trends add complexity to Bitcoin’s prospects. The US dollar is weakened to a near three-month low, sending precious metals higher, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain under pressure.
At the same time, the evolving financial ecosystem can provide new support. Market observers point to the rise of “all exchanges,” platforms aimed at integrating stock, crypto and prediction markets, using AI-driven trading and settlement systems.
Just last week, Coinbase made an “all exchange”-like move and launched an expansion of its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures and other features. Companies entering this space — ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms — are competing for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.
Bitcoin price volatility
Nevertheless, volatility remains a defining characteristic. Although Bitcoin has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled in three years, the absence of extreme outliers or declines has tempered expectations. Future bitcoin moves may be more measured, with investors likely to see smaller cyclical peaks and valleys over the medium term rather than the dramatic swings of previous cycles.
VanEck said the broader market is in correction. Short- to medium-term speculative activity is retreating, long-term holders are holding firm, and institutional accumulation is increasing. Combined with signs of miner capitulation, moderate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics, the company views the current environment as one of structural recalibration.
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin may be in a period of consolidation that reflects broader market maturation, VanEck said. This could result in some strong positive price movements in the first quarter of next year.
#volatile #Bitcoin #strong