DATs Slow, Futures Get Crushed: Is Bitcoin Entering a New, Cleaner Market Regime?

Spot liquidity remains 30-40% below October levels as markets remain vulnerable and volatility increases between majors and altcoins.

The crypto market is undergoing a broad recalibration, shaped by softer demand from ETFs and DATs, a reset of leverage in futures and DeFi, and still weak spot liquidity.

These factors have put pressure on prices, but also mean that the system is healthier, less influential, more neutrally positioned and increasingly anchored by fundamentals.

Demand for ETFs is declining amid low liquidity

Recent data collected by CoinMetrics shows that the main absorption channels have weakened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced multi-week net outflows of $4.9 billion since mid-October, the largest redemption cycle since April 2025, while DATs are seeing cost base pressures that are pushing their premiums down to NAV and limiting their ability to raise capital or grow crypto holdings per share.

The Michael Saylor-led Strategy, the largest DAT that holds 649,870 BTC at an average cost of $74,333, has slowed accumulation as stock valuations softened, similar to a broader cooling in Treasuries. At the same time, leverage in the futures and DeFi markets has reset after the October 10 liquidation cascade, erasing more than 30% of open interest on perpetual futures in hours and pushing OI well below pre-crash highs.

Funding rates have moved towards neutral or slightly negative, and DeFi lending has seen a similar slide: active lending on Aave V3 has fallen since late September, with the sharpest contraction coming from stablecoin lending after Ethena’s USDe depegging triggered a 65% drop in USDe lending.

ETH-based loans, including WETH and LSTs, fell 35-40%, amid reduced looping and lower need for leverage. Spot liquidity has yet to recover and top-of-book depth for BTC, ETH and SOL is still 30-40% below early October levels. This has made the markets more fragile and vulnerable to excessive price movements. Liquidity conditions in altcoins remain even weaker, indicative of continued risk aversion and reduced market-making activity.

CoinMetrics observed that this internal reset is taking place against a macroeconomic backdrop that continues to present headwinds as uncertainty around rate cut expectations, weakness in technology stocks and broader risk aversion have dampened interest in digital assets.

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Ready for recovery?

Bitcoin’s recent divergence against gold, which is up more than 50% this year, and the loss of momentum in AI-driven tech stocks highlight how changing macro conditions have affected sentiment. While these pressures have weighed on prices, they also leave the market in a more neutral, less impressionable state as positioning is cleaned up and systemic vulnerabilities are reduced.

A steady recovery in key demand channels, such as ETF inflows, renewed DAT accumulation and stablecoin supply expansion, alongside a recovery in spot liquidity, would provide the basis for stabilization and eventual reversal. Until these elements turn around, markets will continue to be shaped by the tension between an unfriendly macro regime and a crypto market structure that is internally healthier but still awaits a return of stronger demand.