There will be 15 top-class pacers from 11 different stables and two countries taking part in our biggest harness race over 3200 metres, but what Carter Dalgety chooses to do in a few crucial seconds around the middle of the race could determine the outcome more than anything.
Dalgety is the driving force behind the Republican Party of New Zealand, trained by his parents Cran and Chrissie, who have yearned for New Zealand Cup victory since childhood. This is their chance.
The Republican Party has clearly been the best pacer in New Zealand this spring with three landslide victories in quick times and on all three occasions he has kept his top speed to the line.
That’s crucial in a New Zealand Cup, where the blistering pace of the long drive means the home straight at Addington is no place for those who back down.
There’s plenty of class among local rivals like Akuta, Merlin and We Walk By Faith in particular, but on form over the past year, and even more so this spring, the top Republican Party has the Kiwis covered.
So what’s the problem?
Well, there are actually two and one of them is the running sun that puts everything else in its shadow: Leap To Fame.
The Queensland champion returns to New Zealand, where he won the Race By Betcha in April for a race with the same monetary value but worth so much more.
His trainer-driver Grant Dixon has always wanted to win a New Zealand Cup, a race with almost mythical allure for the best Australian trainers.
Leap To Fame has proven to be nearly unbeatable, save for a few times when he has been below his best when he has been able to lead.
He has beautiful manners, so while his standing starting position in the middle of the front line will be a mental test for him today, he should be no worse than midfield if everyone gets themselves sorted.
But he will likely be behind the Republican Party as the Kiwi pacers enter this big field and are in the running all year round.
If Dalgety secures that tactical advantage after his spring form, it seems logical that he can move towards the lead on the first lap.
The moment that decides this New Zealand Cup could come shortly afterwards.
If the Republican Party is ahead and Dixon comes looking for control of the race, Dalgety has two options: give him the front or leave him parked.
Give the lead and he’s almost guaranteed to be dragged into second place with the slim hope of running past Leap To Fame.
Leave the Australian hero parked and he increases his chances of beating him, but also the pressure that leaves them both vulnerable later on, including to the other Aussie in the race, Victoria Cup winner Kingman.
This time last year no decision would have been made. The Republican Party was clearly inferior to Leap To Fame and probably still is.
But that gap may have closed. The Republican Party has taken a harder edge, constant battles have become frequent victories.
And after two recent defeats in Melbourne, you might suggest Leap To Fame has lost a few percentage points of dominance. He is still the best horse in this race, but no longer wears an unidentifiable armor.
A former First 15 rugby star, Dalgety is not intimidated by those bigger and stronger than him, so his first thought is: if he gains an advantage, he must keep it.
“The biggest advantage in racing is that we are on the poles, especially in Addington on Cup Day, so if we can get to the front I won’t give up,” he says.
“I know what a great horse Leap To Fame is, he is a champion, and there are plenty of other very good horses in his race, but if we find ourselves in that position and shake hands, we are probably conceding defeat.
“Our horse has never been better. He flies and has improved since Ashburton [last start].
“Dad has waited all his life to develop a Cup winner and we may never get another opportunity like this, so we won’t give it away. If Leap To Fame, or anything else, can come from outside us or behind us to win, then they are just too good.”
If that most likely Cup scenario happens, the Republican Party’s chances increase, Leap To Fame’s chances shrink slightly, and rivals like Kingman, Merlin, Akuta and We Walk By Faith all get a bigger glimmer of hope.
And we could get a vintage New Zealand Cup as a gift.
Cup selections from Michael Guerin:
1 Leap to fame
2 Republican Party
3 Koningman
4 Urgent
For full race entries, click here.
Through Michael Guerinfor Harness Racing New Zealand
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