CryptoQuant: Strategy’s Bitcoin is worth 78% more than its shares

Strategy’s supply of 649,870 BTC implies a value 78% above MSTR’s price, marking a rare historical undervaluation zone.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, the market is misjudging Strategy (MSTR), arguing that the company’s supply of 649,870 BTC now implies a value about 78% higher than where the stock is currently trading.

He bases that view on on-chain metrics and CryptoQuant’s MSTR price bands, which he says now show the stock is deep in its historical undervaluation zone.

Analyst Spots Rare Undervaluation Zone for MSTR

In a December 1 report, Alemán pointed out that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings were acquired at an average cost of $74,432 per BTC, giving the company a “realized price” with an unrealized gain of about 22% on its position.

According to his calculations, the relationship between this stock and the current MSTR stock price is suggests a discount of approximately 78% to the value implied by the BTC treasury.

CryptoQuant’s MSTR price bands compare the stock’s actual trading level to a theoretical fair value based purely on Bitcoin reserves. The upper band has historically marked periods when MSTR trades at a rich premium, while the lower band usually coincides with deep discounts that are often followed by recoveries.

Alemán noted that the MSTR has already tapped into that lower band in the latest chart, a condition he described as a strong mispricing signal that in previous cycles preceded “sustained recovery” once sentiment improved.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s BTC accumulation has not slowed down. It recently made its largest purchase since July, adding more than $830 million worth of Bitcoin, at around $100,000 per BTC.

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The move followed rumors that the company was quietly selling, which were later debunked by on-chain analysts and CEO Michael Saylor, who insisted the company was buying daily even as BTC fell from around $107,000 to $94,000.

Stock slide and ETF rotation

MSTR closed around $177 on December 1, well below its 52-week high around $457, and barely above its yearly low around $166, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The stock has been hit by a broad decline in Bitcoin-linked stocks, its exclusion from the S&P 500 on November 25, and fears that upcoming MSCI index rules could force additional selling from companies whose balance sheets are heavily linked to crypto.

At the same time, institutional money has shifted from leveraged “Bitcoin proxy” stocks like Strategy to spot BTC ETFs from issuers like BlackRock. According to market observers, that rotation has eroded the high premium MSTR often enjoyed over the underlying Bitcoin and pushed the company’s market value below the value of its BTC holdings for the first time in about five years.

Some, like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, argue that companies holding large treasuries of digital assets can reasonably trade at a discount due to operating costs and risks. The Strategy itself has tried to reassure bondholders, recently highlighting that BTC reserves cover convertible debt almost sixfold in Bitcoin, around $74,000, and about twice as much even on a steep drop to $25,000.