Crypto sentiment turns bullish as the XWIN trend index rises to 72

Despite extreme fear numbers, XWIN Research says real demand and liquidity support a cautious bull phase.

XWIN Research Japan’s Trend Index has recorded a “mild uptrend” score of 72/100, with Bitcoin (BTC) approaching the $91,000 mark.

This comes even as fear gauges and liquidity data warn of fragile conditions, with analysts saying a mix of whale accumulation, recovering spot prices and overextended retail leverage paints a cautiously bullish but bouncy backdrop for the market.

Trend index indicates a cautious bull phase

According to XWIN, real demand and liquidity still support a positive trend, even as overheated retail and limited liquidity mean prices can swing sharply either way.

Bitcoin is consolidating in the $80,000 to $90,000 range after falling from about $99,500 to about $86,500 in 11 days, with both the average ETF cost of nearly $82,000 and the short-term cost basis of $85,500 remaining above $82,000.

The DeFi asset management platform index sit in the ‘mild uptrend’ zone (60-79), indicating a constructive setup rather than a blow-off phase. That lines up with broader market data showing that $130 billion was added to the total value when BTC started aiming for $92,000.

Whale behavior is also an important part of the story. According to on-chain data cited by

Additionally, the research firm highlighted data from Cointelegraph showing that the world’s top 100 publicly traded companies now hold more than 1,058,000 BTC, which the research firm says is a sign that the company’s stacks are shifting from a side note to a central theme of the asset’s investment case.

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At the same time, it pointed to a net outflow of 3,959 BTC from centralized exchanges in the past 24 hours, combined with the largest deflation of futures open interest in the cycle, which went from about $45 billion to $28 billion, as a sign that excess debt has been flushed out, leaving spot demand in better shape.

Divergent signals

Despite the recent show of price resilience, sentiment is still gloomy, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 22. However, XWIN noted that many investors see the $80,000 region as “fair value” for Bitcoin.

According to the company, traders are also watching options expiration, with 147,000 BTC contracts worth $13 billion set to expire on November 28, which could cause volatility in the short term.

Key price zones are also in focus, with XWIN suggesting that a break above the $93,000 to $94,000 resistance band could pull Bitcoin towards the token $100,000 mark. Still, a decline below the $85,500 support could test further lows.

Meanwhile, altcoins are still lagging behind, with November’s wipeout leaving many majors down by up to 50%. Still, analysts argue that capital is building in stablecoins ahead of a possible rotation. And now that ETH is back above $3,000, the network is raising its gas limit, and pilots like tokenized money market funds are going on-chain, XWIN believes the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency may be entering the early stages of a new revival.