For months I had the first 300 words of an article entitled ‘Verstappen is ready to produce something special’ on my laptop.
It started during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend in March, only the second round of the season, when McLaren already seemed to have a clear lead over Red Bull. But that weekend exposed bigger weaknesses in the RB21, and it remained a concept.
He then won in Japan, and it seemed too obvious at the time to complete such a stretch, especially as it meant Verstappen was just one point away from taking the championship lead at the next round in Bahrain.
By the time I got back to writing more in-depth about the Dutchman and his driving style, his aberration came at the Spanish Grand Prix, when he went from a race win behind Oscar Piastri in the points to effectively two. His red mist moment had ruined the argument I wanted to make at the time, as an aggressive strategy and impressive drive paled into insignificance, and he converted another solid score into a penalty.
Since he only took one podium between then and the end of the summer break – during the next round in Canada – the chance of that special performance all but disappeared.
And yet over the past three race weekends I have gotten the feeling that it really could be on the agenda again. Max Verstappen could still win this Drivers’ Championship, and that would be a huge setback considering the machinery he has had for most of the season.
Of course, the odds are still hugely against him. Verstappen is currently 63 points behind Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship, with 174 still to be played in the final quarter of the season. But since the summer break, Verstappen has scored 86 of the maximum 100 points on offer, despite clearly being unable to challenge the McLarens at Zandvoort.
A win was not possible in Singapore when he could not get past George Russell at the start, but despite battling a car with gearbox inconsistencies, Verstappen still put pressure on the Mercedes midway through the race and crossed the line just 5.4 seconds behind the race winner while defending against Lando Norris.
As Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies noted after the checkered flag on Sunday, the race weekend in Marina Bay had proven that the recent gains are not just specific to low-downforce circuits. After upgrades in Baku and Singapore, Red Bull has a better view of its car in all locations.
For McLaren, the low relegation of Monza and Baku, plus the bumps and curb driving at the latter two venues, had not played to their strengths. But the performance gap had also clearly closed, and chances are Red Bull will have a car that can at least come close on most tracks.
Verstappen remains a champion in the championship, but recent wins from Red Bull – coupled with concerns from McLaren about some of the upcoming circuits – mean the door is still open. Clive Mason/Getty Images
McLaren team boss Andrea Stella fears COTA may not be the strongest track for his team either, pointing to Brazil, Qatar and Abu Dhabi as the car best available for Piastri and Norris. And if that prediction comes true, Verstappen still has two race weekends to go where he could potentially close that gap further.
A margin of 63 points understandably sounds big, but three races ago that figure was 104. Unlikely as it is, take another 41 points from Piastri in the next three and the gap would be 22 points heading into Las Vegas – a track where McLaren also expects things to be tough.
Yes, that sounds imaginative. But who could have predicted the points reduction that would take place on the road to Monza, opening up a series of circuits where Red Bull had never been anywhere a year ago?
And there are even more dynamics at play that reinforce the feeling that Verstappen can still pose a threat. One of these is Mercedes’ performance in Singapore, which shows that there is another team that could create bigger points gaps if conditions are equal. That goes both ways and could see Piastri or Norris make further mistakes quickly, but it is an element that McLaren rarely had to deal with for most of the season. Only three times did it fail to win in the first fifteen rounds, and each time it was an isolated event. McLaren is now winless in the last three.
There is also the internal situation at McLaren, where two drivers want to secure their first title and balance the need to beat their teammate with the desire to maintain team harmony, with the long-term future in mind. With only 22 points separating the pair, McLaren cannot currently throw its weight behind one car in the way Red Bull was able to do last year to fend off a backlash.
As a four-time world champion trying to make a remarkable comeback, Verstappen has nothing to lose. This title has long been out of his reach, and if it remains so, he has the previous successes to his name – successes that give him far more experience of the pressure to come than the two McLaren drivers.
Norris’ victory in the season opener Australia brandIt was the first time the Dutchman had headed in 1,029 days, and Verstappen has not hit the front at any point this season. Still, team members said there was a change in his behavior in Baku, when suddenly there seemed to be something to chase.
Although they see each other as clearly their biggest rivals when it comes to the Drivers’ Championship, the fact that Verstappen poses even the slightest threat to the McLaren drivers adds extra pressure. There aren’t many drivers in racing who you have complete confidence will take opportunities when given, but Verstappen is certainly one of those drivers, so Piastri and Norris will know to make sure they don’t offer opportunities.
Verstappen remains a huge outsider, but Red Bull seems to have taken just enough steps forward to get him in the picture on most circuits. His presence alone will further jeopardize every race weekend for the McLaren duo, and while actually overhauling it still seems unfathomable, can you really ever write him off?
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