Despite this decline, copper has experienced exceptional performance in 2025. The metal has posted its longest winning streak since 2017, rising for eight consecutive sessions in December and peaking just below $13,000 a tonne.Copper reached $12,558.50 a tonne on international markets on Tuesday, marking a 2.7% gain for the session and bringing the year-to-date rise in Comex copper futures to over 40%, the sharpest annual rise since 2009.
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst, Currencies & Commodities at Reliance Securities, supply concerns have been a key driver of the recent surge. Traders have increasingly shifted metal to the US in anticipation of possible tariffs, tightening availability in other regions.
In addition, multiple disruptions in major producing countries such as Indonesia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo have depressed global supply. In November, Mercuria Energy Group flagged the possibility of a severe global copper shortage by 2026.
Trivedi also pointed to the role of a weaker US dollar, which has made metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies. The dollar has depreciated by about 8% in 2025, providing further support to commodity prices. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper exceeded the $12,600 per tonne mark for the first time this year.
According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, 3M LME copper settled at $12,635.55, reflecting a gain of 3.48%, with strong support at $12,000 and expected resistance at $12,840 to $14,000 per tonne.
He noted that copper prices are showing high volatility and solid strength, recovering from previous sell-offs amid supportive macro factors and 2026 demand expectations.
Domestically, Jain highlighted that the January MCX copper futures contract has support at Rs 1,205 to Rs 1,271, while resistance is seen between Rs 1,374 and Rs 1,410.
While copper has cooled from its recent highs, analysts argue that the overall market environment continues to be defined by a “perfect storm” of supply chain stress, optimistic macroeconomic prospects and speculative interest, especially in the context of global industrial recovery.
The outlook for copper remains closely tied to movements in the dollar index, potential policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical developments, all of which are expected to impact metal prices in the near term.
Also read: Silver price crashes by Rs 15,000 on the last trading day of 2025. What should traders do?
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