The $250,000 Queen betheld at 1 1/8 miles around two turns, has been important preparation for Oaks in recent years. Malathaat won the 2020 Demoiselle, captured the 2021 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs and then trained to win the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff in a career that should merit consideration for the Racing Hall of Fame. Nest captured the Demoiselle in 2021, and the following spring she was second in the Kentucky Oaks and also in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets against men.
Both fillies are trained by Todd Pletcher, and the Hall of Famer has a pair of excellent contenders in this year’s renewal, which drew a small field of six that is packed with potential. Zaan (#3) and Credible (#6) are owned by Mike Repole, who campaigned for Nest, and they are both well-bred daughters of former Horses of the Year. Zany, an American Pharoah filly, comes from Florida after one start at Gulfstream Park, where she easily defeated four opponents by 6 ½ lengths in a 6 ½ furlong sprint on November 2. She is bred to stretch to two turns and will likely be the post-time favorite in the Demoiselle based on her impressive debut speed figures.
Irad Ortiz Jr., fresh off a meet title at Churchill Downs, will be aboard Zany and I expect him to assess her early pace and attempt a stalk-and-pounce trip as she attempts the longer distance. I’ll be using this filly in exotic betting, but I’ll be putting my chips on Pletcher’s other runner, Believable, betting to win and pairing her on top of exacta tickets. This Curlin filly stumbled early in her debut when hitting a one-turn mile at Aqueduct during the Belmont at the Big A meet in September, but still gained the upper hand by a nose in a hard-fought effort. She then faltered a bit at the start of the one-mile Tempted Stakes at the Big A on Nov. 6, racing four to five wide on the backstretch behind the field, then mustered a sustained rally that failed to threaten the groundbreaking winner. Shillings (#2).
Although Believable’s speed figures are nothing to write home about, it will be only her third start for Demoiselle and she is bred to enjoy an extra eighth of a mile and two turns. Moreover, she will add flashing lights for this race, which will hopefully help her get a better start. There appears to be enough speed in this small field to set Believable up for another rally that will hopefully help her reach the winner’s circle. Hall of Famer John Velazquez, rider of Malathaat, climbs the mountain for the first time.
With a $30 budget, I bet $10 to win on Believable at odds of 5-2 or higher, and use the rest by keying her in exactas over Zany and Chilled plus Simultaneously (#4), a Chad Brown-trained filly who finished second to Believable in the aforementioned first race and then won a maiden mile at Aqueduct on November 2. Her jockey, Flavien Prat, is winning at a blistering 38% clip during this race.
Betting strategy with a $30 budget:
$10 profit on Credible
What to say during the betting window:
Aqueduct, Race 3, $10 win #6
$10 exacta, believable with Zany
What to say during the betting window:
Aqueduct, Race 3, $10 exacta, #6 with #3
$5 exacta, credible with shilling and simultaneously ($10)
What to say during the betting window:
Aqueduct, Race 3, $5 exacta, #6 with #2 and #4
#Confidence #credible #result #Demoiselle #Stakes