At the center of attention is California Governor Gavin Newsom, fresh off his big victory on Proposition 50, the backatcha ballot measure that flipped the state’s congressional map to boost Democrats and offset a power grab by Republicans in Texas.
Newsom is bidding for the White House, and has been doing so for almost a year, although he won’t say so out loud. Is Newsom the Democratic frontrunner or just a flash in the pan?
Times columnists Anita Chabria and Mark Z. Barabak disagree on Newsom’s presidential prospects, and more. Here, the two lay out some of their differences.
Barabak: Is the presidential race over, Anita? Should I just spend the next few years backpacking and snowboarding in the Sierra and return in January 2029 to see Newsom repeat, rise to the moment and, by design, be sworn in as our country’s 48th president?
Chabria: You should definitely spend as much time in the Sierra as possible, but I have no idea if Newsom will be elected president in 2028 or not. In political terms, that’s about a million light years away. But I think he has a chance and is currently the frontrunner for the nomination. He has cast himself as President Trump’s quick enemy, and increasingly as leader of the Democratic Party. Last week he visited Brazil for a climate summit that Trump ghosted, making Newsom the American presence.
And inside a recent (albeit small) pollIn a hypothetical race against JD Vance, the current Republican favorite, Newsom led by three points. Although, unexpectedly, respondents still chose Kamala Harris as their choice for the nomination.
To me that shows that he is popular across the country. But you have warned that Californians are having a hard time attracting voters in other states. Do you think his Golden State roots will destroy his contender status?
Barabak: I don’t make predictions. I’m smart enough to know that I’m not smart enough to know. And after 2016 and the election of Trump, the words “can’t”, “won’t”, “won’t”, “never” have been permanently erased from my political vocabulary.
That said, I wouldn’t bet more than a penny — which may ultimately be worth something as they disappear from our currency — on Newsom’s chances.
Look, I don’t give in to anyone in my love for California. (And I have the Golden State tattoos to prove it.) But I take into account how the rest of the country views the state and the politicians who wear a California return address. You can be sure that whoever runs against Newsom — and I’m talking about his fellow Democrats, not just Republicans — will have a lot to say about the state’s far higher housing, grocery and gas prices and our embarrassing rates of poverty and homelessness.
Not a great look for Newsom, especially when affordability is all the political fad these days.
And while I understand the governor’s call: Fight! Fight! Fight! – I liken it to the fleeting fantasy that lawyer, convicted con man and rhetorical battering ram Michael Avenatti seriously discussed for a time as a Democratic presidential candidate. At some point – and we’re still years away – people will judge candidates with their heads, not their guts.
As for the polls, ask Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart or Hillary Clinton how much those polls matter at this extraordinarily early stage of a presidential race. Well, you can’t ask Muskie that, because the former senator from Maine is dead. But all three were early frontrunners who failed to win the Democratic nomination.
Chabria: I am not arguing the historic case against the Golden State, but I will argue that these are different days. People don’t vote with their heads. Fight me on that.
They vote on charisma, tribalism and perhaps some hope and fear. They vote on issues as social media explains them. They vote for memes.
There is no reality in which our next president is rationally judged on their record – our current president has a criminal president and it made no difference.
But I do think, as we have discussed ad nauseam, that democracy is in danger. Trump recently threatened to run for a third term regretted that his cabinet doesn’t show him the same kind of fear that Chinese President Xi Jinping gets from his top advisers. And Vance, should he get the chance to run, has made it clear that he is a Christian nationalist who wants to deport almost every immigrant he can get his hands on, legal or not.
Being a Californian may not be the disadvantage it has historically been, especially if Trump’s authoritarianism continues and this state remains the symbol of resistance.
But our governor does have an immediate scandal to contend with. His former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, was just arrested on federal corruption charges. Do you think that hurts him?
Barabak: It shouldn’t.
There is no evidence of wrongdoing by Newsom. His opponents will try the guilt-by-association thing. Some have already done that. But unless something devastating surfaces, there is no reason why the governor should be punished for the alleged misconduct of Williamson or others charged in the case.
But let’s get back to 2028 and the presidential race. I think one of our fundamental differences is that I believe people Doing evaluate a candidate’s ideas and documents very strongly. Not in a detailed way, or in the way a chin-stroking political scientist would. But voters do want to know how and whether a candidate can materially improve their lives.
There are, of course, a lot of people who would reflexively support Donald Trump, or Donald Duck for that matter, if he is the Republican nominee. The same goes for Democrats who would vote for Gavin Newsom or Gavin Floyd if either were the party’s nominee. (While Newsom played baseball in college, Floyd pitched thirteen seasons in the major leagues, so he has that advantage over the governor.)
But I’m talking about those voters who are up for grabs – the ones who decide competitive races – who make a very rational decision based on their lives and livelihoods and which candidate they think will benefit them the most.
Granted, the dynamics are a little different in a primary. But even then, we’ve seen the whole dated/married phenomenon over and over again. Like in 2004, when many Democrats “affiliated” with Howard Dean early in the primary season, but “married” John Kerry. I see electability – as in the perception of which the Democrat can win the general election – being as good as affordability when it comes time for primary voters to make their 2028 choice.
Chabria: No doubt affordability will be a major issue, especially if consumer confidence continues to decline. And we will certainly hear criticism of California, many of which are justified, as you point out. Housing costs too much, homelessness remains persistent.
But these are also problems across the United States and require deeper solutions than even this economically powerful state can handle alone. Even more than the past, the vision of the future will matter. What’s the plan?
It can’t be vague tax credits or even student loan forgiveness. We need a concrete vision for an economy that brings not only more fundamentals like housing, but also the kind of long-term economic stability — higher wages, good schools, living-wage jobs — that makes the middle class stronger and more viable.
The Democrat who can advance that vision while continuing to fight the authoritarian creep currently eating away at our democracy will, in my humble opinion, be the one voters choose, regardless of origin story. After all, it was that message of change with hope that gave us President Obama, another candidate who many initially considered a long shot.
Mark, are there any prospects for 2028 that you are watching particularly closely?
Barabak: I’m taking things one election at a time, starting with the 2026 midterm elections, including a race for governor here in California. The November 2026 results will go a long way in shaping the dynamics in November 2028. That said, there is no shortage of Democrats eyeing the race — too many to mention here. Will the number surpass the 29 major Democrats who ran in 2020? We’ll see.
I agree with you that to have any chance of winning in 2028, whoever Democrats nominate will need to provide some serious and substantive ideas about how to make people’s lives materially better. Apart from the endangered democracy and the terrifying authoritarianism, yes still the economy, stupid.
Which brings us full circle, back to our galloping governor. He may be winning fans and building his national fundraising base with his sharp memes and snappy Trump lies. But even if he gets past the built-in anti-California bias among so many voters outside our blessed state, he won’t bulldoze his way to the White House.
I’d bet more than a cent on that.
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