Middleton became the highest drafted pitcher ever for Southern Mississippi when the Rockies drafted him 45th overall in the 2025 draft (Middleton was 41st in MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings), which gave the now 22-year-old right-hander a $2.072 million bonus, which amounts to $100,000 under lock. Middleton doesn’t have the ideal size for a modern pitcher (he is only 6’0″), but his repertoire includes a good mix of three pitches (fastball, slider, change) that he throws for strikes. He throws from a three-quarter slot with a quick arm action, a mid-90s fastball, a late-breaking slider that gets whiffs, and a good changeup to keep lefties honest.
Middleton’s freshman year in 2023 wasn’t pretty (nine earned runs in 9 1/3 innings), but he became a key reliever in 2024 for USM, throwing 37 1/3 innings with a 4.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate and 6.0 BB/9 rate. Middleton’s stuff took a big step forward in 2025 and he moved into the role of a top starter. In 16 starts, Middleton averaged nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing (105 1/3) against less touted competition in the Sun Belt Conference. Middleton’s ERA of 2.31, 10.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 were good, but his Sterling 0.85 WHIP (second in Division I) was especially notable.
Here’s a video of Middleton in action in March with USM courtesy of Kyler Peterson, including some slo-mo looks of his delivery and release for his arsenal in the last few minutes:
Middleton is a four-pitch man who is up to 97 on the heater and lacks a clear out-pitch in the mix, but mitigates that with plus control and a good delivery that he repeats well. I noted at the draft that he was a good candidate for the Rockies, who now have their own pitching lab, to work with on the pitch design because it seems like his slider could be sharper and perhaps become that 60 in the quiver to help him miss more bats. As it is, he’s a back-end starter who should reach Double A quickly.
Middleton works a versatile 93-95 mph fastball that has a top velocity of 97, showing the ability to run and sink it to the knees or carry it up by the letters. He gets a lot of swings and misses in the zone, provokes a lot of chases and makes it almost impossible to lift his heater in the air. His slider is even harder to hit, as he combines mid-80s speed with dual-plane depth, and he will turn it into a cutter at times.
Middleton will also show an 86-88 mph changeup that tumbles and fades and gets in-zone misses and chases, just like his other offerings. He has an athletic performance, moves well down the hill and halves his running pace compared to last season. His lack of physicality is the only real knock against him as a long-term starter, although his improved striking and such strengths are in his favor.
FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen is less optimistic, with Middleton rated as a 40 FV player (99th in the draft class) and ranked him 22nd in the system with a future grade of 60 for a change:
Undersized righty who moved into the Southern Miss rotation this year and logged well over 100 innings of 94-95 mph heaters, hitting 97 in the final start of the year. Fastball lacks tremendous life, the short 80s slider often looks more like a cutter, but played like a plus pitch in terms of misses in 2025. Reverses a mid-80s power tailing changeup that looks more obviously plus to the eye. Will show you some pitchability elements (slider/fastball sequence at the top of the zone) and was a dramatically improved strike-thrower in 2025, but the size and location of the meat-of-zone point more to a long relief role.
With a short arm stroke in an up-tempo delivery and super quick arm, the ball really jumps out of Middleton’s hand, but the command is quite inconsistent. He shoots the ball from a 3/4 slot and has more than enough stuff to be a factor in the professional ranks. His fastball sits 93-96, but has been up to 98 with ride and run. He pulls off a very good, solid gyro slider in the upper 80s, though he can tick it off and also add a good amount of dihedral depth at times. His changeup is in the mid-80s and he throws with conviction and good arm speed, showing plenty of tumble and fade. The arm action and command to go with a somewhat undersized frame leaves a lot of reliever risk, a role he spent most of his college career in before transitioning to the starter role this season. He has improved in almost every statistical category this year and has really limited the number of free passes he has thrown, giving scouts much more confidence that he can eventually start long-term.
Middleton has yet to make his professional debut, which isn’t surprising considering the workload he had in 2025. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockies started him in High-A this spring after working on field design this offseason, although a Low-A debut is also possible. Middleton is a starting pitcher with high probability and some projection in the middle of the rotation. That’s always a big need for the Rockies, though I’d like to see his 2025 results carry over to pro ball before I rank him where MLB Pipeline has him in the system. For me, Middleton is a 40+ FV player that I placed ninth on my list.
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