Cognizant Classic betting guide: 6 picks our experts love this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring tips from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A veteran golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Cognizant Classic, which kicks off Thursday in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Say goodbye to the Pacific coast, desert golf and Poa Annua and hello to palm trees, water hazards and Bermudagrass. Yes, the West Coast Swing is over and we are on our way to Florida. The 2026 PGA Tour season begins its Florida Swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Cognizant Classic, the first of four consecutive stops in the Sunshine State.

Coming off the back of two consecutive Signature events and another coming next week at Bay Hill in Orlando, the Cognizant takes a hit in field strength. Positioned on the schedule as a “tweener” makes for an unfortunate but obvious off-week for the top players in the game.

Not only has the name of this event (formerly known as the Honda Classic) changed, but the difficulty of the golf course has also changed dramatically. George and Tom Fazio designed PGA National in the early 1980s. Jack Nicklaus was asked to create a new design in 1990 and has made three or four additional modifications since then. For years we saw the champions barely reach double figures. Chris Kirk won in a playoff four seasons ago at age 14. Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at 17 under par and Joe Highsmith is your defending champion, finishing last year at 19 under par.

One of the more challenging par 4s on Tour, the 10th hole at PGA National, was lengthened by 20 yards two years ago and converted into a much more scoreable par 5. The dormant Bermuda grass is now overseeded with winter ryegrass, providing a softer landing, more receptive fairways and less penal rough. It’s interesting, but this really changed things, with seemingly half a dozen shots or more. Jack Knapp opened last year’s event with a 59. The current version is a par 71 that extends to just over 7,200 yards and is now considered solely a Nicklaus design.

Another element that always comes into play here in Palm Beach Gardens is the wind. With water coming into play on 15 of the 18 holes, a good breeze can make things quite risky. Nicklaus’s piece of lock holes, Nos. 15 – 17, is known as the ‘Bear Trap’. Two par 3s and a par 4, all with shots over water. The weather forecast calls for wind speeds of between 10 and 25 km per hour. That’s telling, but if it rises even further, we could see a bloodbath.

For me, the golf course requires accuracy, hitting the ball and scrambling around the greens. I looked at strokes gained: Approach, Off the Tee and Ball Striking. I looked at Good Drives Gained, Scrambling and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards. With water everywhere, 60 sand bunkers and wind that makes good approach shots from 150 yards or more, PGA National will be one of the most challenging locations on Tour to do such things.

As far as interrelated courses go, I believe a lot of it has to do with how you play in Florida. Conditions are similar at each location on the swing, Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Innisbrook (Valspar), TPC Sawgrass (the players) and PGA National. I feel like we’re seeing some crossover success with Waialae in Honolulu and also with recent Canadian Open venues Hamilton, St. George’s and TPC Toronto. Finally, there is a lot of crossover success here at the Cognizant with that of the Open Championship. Former Open champions Padraig Harrington and Marc Calcavecchia have each won this event twice. Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Leonard, Rickie Fowler and Todd Hamilton have all won here in Florida and have won or played particularly well in the Open. Personally, I believe a lot of that comes down to ball striking and the ability to play in the wind – both useful when it comes to an Open Championship or the Florida Swing.

Daniel Berger (40-1)

The Florida State Seminole really started his career here at PGA National when he lost in a playoff as a Tour rookie in 2015. Since then, he has finished fourth here twice, in 2020 and in 2022. Berger has always been a good ball striker, blower, accurate driver and Bermudagrass specialist. Through the final 24 rounds he ranked eighth in this field for Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. He placed sixth in Hawaii at Waialae earlier this season and eighth at the 2021 Royal St. George’s Open Championship.

Aaron Ray (40-1)

Here’s another very accurate ball-striking type player who knows his way around in windy conditions. Rai finished 14th at Hamilton at the 2024 Canadian Open and 13th at St. George’s in 2022. He was 19th at Royal St. George’s in 2021 at the Open. In this field, Rai ranks 12th for SG: Approach, seventh for Bogey Avoiding, and No. 1 for Good Drives Gained over the past 24 rounds.

Haotong Li (49-1)

We tried Li in Phoenix a few weeks ago and came up short, but I’ll go back to him here given his recent form and his skills. He finished eighth and 11th on Tour this season and twice in the top 10 on the DP World Tour heading into 2025. Li is currently eighth on Tour for SG: Tee to Green, 17th in Total Driving and 19th for Scrambling. Li has twice finished in the top 4 at the Open Championship, including last summer at Royal Portrush.

Jordan Smith (60-1)

I’ve always felt that Smith has a lot of upside and I’m glad we’re now seeing him regularly on the PGA Tour, where he’s currently fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation, and No. 1 in Ball Striking. He finished 16th in Phoenix a few weeks ago and closed out 2025 on the DP World Tour with finishes of 15-20-and-21.

Mackenzie Hughes (62-1)

Enter the Canadian short game wizard who finished in the top 35 twice in a row at Phoenix and two weeks ago at Pebble Beach, where he finished 17th in the field for Greens in Regulation. Over the last 24 laps, Hughes is second in this field ahead of Scrambling. At the 2021 Open Championship at Royal St. George’s, Hughes finished sixth. He was second here at the Cognizant in 2020 and finished seventh and 14th at the Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2024 and in 2019.

Emiliano Grillo (85-1)

It really is a melting pot of choices this week, so why not an Argentinian? But seriously, Grillo is a ball striker who really seems to suit Florida golf. He was eighth here at Palm Beach Gardens in 2018, was eighth and seventh at Bay Hill and even 11th at The Players. He missed three cuts in five starts in the West, so the move to the Southeast could be a much-needed change. Over the last 24 rounds, Grillo ranks 14th in this field ahead of Bogey Avoiding, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards, and seventh in Good Drives Gained. At the Open Championship he finished 12th twice and in 2023 he finished sixth.