Cody Bellinger will decline his $25 million player option and become a free agent, reports ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. There was never much doubt about that, as the outfielder will hit the open market after a strong season with the Yankees. He will receive a $5 million buyout, half of which will be paid by the Cubs.
The Yanks had been linked to Bellinger for years in free agency and trade rumors. That finally came to fruition last season with what amounted to a salary dump trade with Chicago. Coming off a relatively down season in ’24 (.266/.325/.426), Bellinger passed on his first opt-out opportunity in his three-year contract. The Cubs drew the Kyle Tucker trade to add a required impact bat in the middle of the order. That left them with no room in the outfield for Bellinger, so they sent him to the Yankees without any return.
New York absorbed $47.5 million of the $52.5 million remaining on Bellinger’s contract. The Cubs paid $2.5 million of his $27.5 million salary this season and are responsible for the remaining $2.5 million in the buyout. The Yankees ended up paying $27.5 million for one year – $25 million in salary and the remaining half of the buyout.
That turned out to be a valuable investment, even though the team had a disappointing exit in this week’s Division Series. Bellinger played about as well as could be expected. He hit .272/.334/.480 in 656 plate appearances. Bellinger hit 29 home runs, his best single-season total since hitting 47 longballs during his 2019 MVP season. He swiped 13 bases while lowering his strikeout rate to a career-high 13.7%.
Bellinger’s left-handed swing seemed tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He hit 18 home runs with a .302/.365/.544 home batting line. His road numbers were essentially league average, as he slashed .241/.301/.414 outside the Bronx. That could make some teams reconsider how the bat will play if he signs elsewhere. Bellinger didn’t find the robust market he was looking for when he was a free agent during the 2023-2024 offseason, nor was there strong trade interest when the Cubs acquired him last winter. If so, the Yankees would have had to give up more than journeyman righty Cody Poteet to acquire it.
That’s largely due to Bellinger’s pedestrian-struck ball stats. Over the past three seasons, he has ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of average exit velocity. He doesn’t have much bat speed and certainly doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he did early in his career, before suffering a shoulder injury that sent his numbers plummeting from 2021 to 2022. Bellinger has offset the drop in batting speed by dropping his strikeouts each season, and he has a .281/.338/.477 line in nearly 1,800 plate appearances over the past three years.
Bellinger returns to the market a few months after his 30th birthday. He is young enough to seek a five- or six-year contract. Bellinger is a better defender and arguably superior all-around hitter then Anthony Santanderwho signed a five-year deal last winter with a net present value of around $69 million. There’s little reason why Bellinger couldn’t beat that contract fairly handily. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if his camp starts with an asking price between $100 and 150 million.
The Cubs made Bellinger a qualifying offer after the 2023 season. That makes him ineligible for a QO for the rest of his career. The Yankees wouldn’t receive any form of compensation if he signs elsewhere, nor would another team forfeit a pick. New York can and likely will make a qualifying offer, which would fetch approximately $22 million Trent Grisham. They will have that too Lucas Weaver, Devin Williams, Paul Goudschmidt and a handful of role players ended up on the open market. Williams entered the season as a qualifying offer candidate, but the Yankees are likely content to let him move on in pinstripes after an uneven season.
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