Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, advises investors to remain pragmatic until there is more clarity on prevailing trends. Though Nifty ended on a positive note on Friday, the index is facing limitations in making substantial moves, which is evident from the inside bar formation on the weekly chart, he said. “The challenges around the 20 and 50 DEMA levels have been prominent, although the index has recently breached the 20 DEMA. We remain cautious as we are not yet fully cleared of potential hurdles,” he cautioned, suggesting a focus on key thematic drivers amid the current sectoral swings.
1. Global market signals
Action is expected to remain subdued as major markets go on extended holidays. US markets will take an early break on December 24 and resume trading on December 26.
Markets in Germany will be closed all day on December 24 and 25, while those in the United Kingdom, France and Australia will close early on December 24.
Some countries will even observe market holidays on December 26, including Britain, Germany, France, Australia and Canada due to Boxing Day. Hong Kong is closed for an extended Christmas holiday. Domestic and global markets are likely to take their cues from US markets. Friday’s signals remain positive, with Wall Street’s major indexes ending with strong gains. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,307.60, up 0.38 points, 1.31%. Meanwhile, the Dow 30 ended the session at 48,134.90, up 183.04 points or 0.22%, while the S&P 500 settled at 6,834.50, up 59.74 points or 0.88%.
2.BSE indices adjusted
InterGlobe Aviation and Tata Motors will be in focus on Monday as the former will trade as the newest Sensex member, while Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles will be delisted following the recent demerger and consequent change in market position.
The BSE 500 index will also undergo a major overhaul, with 32 new stocks being added, replacing as many scrips. The changes will take effect on December 22 and are part of the six-monthly reconstruction based on, among other things, the market capitalization, free float and liquidity of the shares.
Read more: December 22 index rejig: ITC Hotels, Reliance Power among 32 new additions to BSE 500. Check changes in SME, others
The other indices that will be reconstituted include BSE 100, BSE Sensex 50 and BSE Bankex.
3. BE/DO action
While action from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remains a crucial factor for domestic markets, it is expected to remain weak in view of the Christmas holidays. Domestic institutional investors (DII) are likely to be the center of attention.
In a positive development, FIIs have emerged as net buyers in the last three sessions, and on Friday they bought Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,830.89 crore. Meanwhile, the DIIs bought shares worth Rs 5,722.89 crore.
Also read: FIIs dump Rs 1.58 lakh cr in 2025, but Rs 3,000 cr year-end purchases will drive a turnaround in 2026. Here’s why
4. IPO watch
Lots of action is expected in the primary markets as eleven issues hit the streets this week. Together they will raise Rs 750 crore.
In this, there is a sole motherboard IPO of Gujarat Kidney & Super Specialty, which will be open for bidding on Monday. The company has set the price range at Rs 108-114.
The SME IPOs launching this week include Apollo Techno Industries, Bai Kakaji Polymers, Admach Systems, Nanta Tech, Dhara Rail Projects, Sundrex Oil, Shyam Dhani Industries, Dachepalli Publishers and EPW India. The issue size in the SME basket ranges from around Rs 31 crore to just over Rs 105 crore.
In addition, there will be five IPOs, of which KSH International is the only mainboard listing.
Also read: IPO calendar: 11 companies to raise Rs 750 crore next week as Gujarat Kidney takes center stage
5. Anchor lock expiration date
Anchor lock-ins in 11 stocks are set to expire this week, making their shares available for sale. The mandatory holding period of three months will end for 10 shares. These include VMS TMT, Ivalue Infosolutions, Saatvik Green Energy, GK Energy, Ganesh Consumer Products, Atlanta Electricals, Solarworld Energy Solutions, Seshaasai Technologies, Jaro Institute of Technology and Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.
The six-month lock-in for Arisinfra Solutions starts on Friday.
6. Technical factors
Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking highlights the formation of the Doji candle on the Nifty weekly chart, which indicates weakness and indecision. The head of Technical & Derivatives Research said the index found support at its 50-DMA during the week and recovered to close above the 25,900 level.
He sees an immediate hurdle near the 21-DMA at 26,000 and expects that a sustained move above this zone could lead to short covering, potentially pushing the index towards 26,200. “Given the recent recovery and a break above the downtrend line, a Santa rally seems possible in the coming week, which could push the Nifty towards 26,200. On the other hand, the key support is around 25,700. Moreover, India’s VIX is hovering around multi-month lows around 9.60, which is likely to provide some reassurance to bullish sentiment,” Jain said.
7. Rupee vs Dollar
The revival of the rupee against the dollar was a key message for the domestic markets on Friday as it rose 97 paise or over 1% to close at 89.27. Last week the price fell below 91 dollars to one dollar for the first time.
INR performance is expected to be a key trigger in the absence of key global indicators.
A likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at the end of Friday’s trading helped the currency rise sharply, several experts monitoring the market said. Previously, the rupee was trading between 89.95 and 90.30. The price opened at 90.13, compared to Thursday’s closing price of 90.24 per dollar.
“A possible intervention by the RBI just five minutes before the market closed saw the rupee close strongly at 89.27. Being a very thin market before the end of the year, any small volume creates volatility in the foreign exchange market, which exactly happened today from 3.25 pm to 3.30 pm,” ET reported, quoting KN Dey, a senior forex market consultant.
Meanwhile, the one-year forward premium rose to 2.84%, the highest level since October 2022, due to strong demand for hedging.
“With the RBI likely to intervene proactively, the short-term outlook for USDINR has turned bearish,” he said.
8. Corporate Action
This week, a number of stocks will be in focus for corporate actions. Monday, December 22 will be a record date for Canara Robeco Asset Management Company’s interim dividend. It will also be a record date for the 1:2 share split of Knowledge Marine & Engineering Works and the rights issue of Pulsar International.
Tuesday will be a record date for rights releases from Vineet Laboratories and Yug Decor.
GRM Overseas and Nectar Lifesciences will have record dates on Wednesday for 2:1 bonus issuance and share buybacks, respectively. It will also be the record date for Prakash Pipes’ Re 1 dividend per share.
Friday will be the record date for Nuvama Wealth Management’s 1:2 stock split and Ram Ratna Wires’ 1:1 bonus issue.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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