The age of America if the global brain magnet can end
| Photocredit: Dana Edwards
Is the world, and specifically the US, about tumbling in the fall of the Thucydides? It starts to look like this while Washington looks anxiously at the Chinese dragon that makes one aggressive move after the other in the east.
First, what exactly is the fall of the Thucydides? It is when a super power is opposed to a rising challenger. In ancient Greece, Sparta, the militarist city state, was not under the rise of Athens, with its philosophers, thinkers and growing military power. This escalated in the brutal Peloponnesian war.
In the modern context we are talking about the US that cross swords with China. At the moment, drones, planes and ships are not about to open the fire together. But in this 21st-century version of the stairs of the Thucydides, the US has launched a complete trade war on China and caught the rest of the world in the crossfire. “Eccentric” is the political word for American actions since the re -election of Donald Trump. Selling 30 rates per cent on all EU and Canadian imports is draconic and has those allies for a plan B that excludes the US.
Go to the energy sector, where the contrast with China is very grim. China is thought to build 74 percent of the solar and wind energy of the world. Trump’s cut tax credits, on the other hand, for renewable energy sources and they call them ‘expensive and unreliable energy sources’. His energy secretary, Chris Wright, threw in the surprising observation that there are ‘plus points and minuses for global warming’. China is also streets ahead in electric vehicles, where Trump has cut subsidies, leaving his old Buddy Elon Musk in the cold.
Look at other sectors where China catches up the West. It pushes forward in AI-driven drug discovery and submits almost as many patents as the US.
This week Democrats accused Trump of ‘Giving out of the worldwide leadership to China’. That is an indisputably valid costs. The US is moving away from the world and makes movements such as the closing of USAID. In the meantime, China is expanding the railway lines and initiating projects in Africa and South America.
Then there is Trump’s attack on universities and foreign students, once the backbone of the American innovation engine. For decades, the smartest spirits from India, China and elsewhere flocked to the US for his training of world class and promise of opportunities. Now they feel like unwanted guests. Visa delays, a hostile political atmosphere and ice attacks have already ensured that Indian student applications are tumbling.
It is more than a performance against immigration. It is a retreat of the idea of knowledge acquisition. American universities, once the envy of the world, are not only damaged by financing cuts, but also by ideological suspicion of science and expertise. At a time when China opens new research institutes, poaches international talent and poaches money in advanced fields such as AI, the US raises the drawbridge.
And it’s not just about students. Consent immigrants, from technical employees to researchers, become stricter access. Washington’s message is clear: the era of America if the global brain magnet can end. For a country that became dominance by attracting the best spirits of each generation, it is a dangerous reversal and a China seems all too ready to take advantage.
Cross to China, where Australian Prime Minister Anthony brings Albanian plan B into action. Leading a powerful trade delegation, he said that Australia had to build the relationships with his greatest trading partner, which caused speculation about ‘The Death of the Quad’.
In a difficult place
Where does this all leave India? Simply put, in a very difficult place. We have a 3,000 km limit to defend with China. And although the relationships seem to improve, there are constant uncomfortable moments.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs S Jaishankar has just made his first trip to China since the Galwan collision. But that has not prevented Beijing from making a pointed explanation about the successor of the Dalai Lama.
As for our relationships with the US, while the public optic remains friendly, the reality is always up and down. Trade discussions have continued and Trump has been working on sweet -talking Pakistan. The US is perhaps the land of values that we cherish, but India learns to watch its back.
It would always be wrong to underestimate the US. In the 1980s it seemed that Japan would catch up. Then the Silicon Valley star America brought back. But that comeback was powered by openness for talent, ideas and the world.
This time it is not just a matter of innovation. The point is whether America still believes in the values that made it a super power. If the answer is no, it will not be China that the US captures in the spiral of the Thucydides. It will be the US that walk in, look wide.
Published on July 16, 2025
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