HONG KONG (AP) — China’s trade surplus will rise to a record nearly $1.2 trillion by 2025, the government said…
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s trade surplus rose to a record nearly $1.2 trillion by 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other countries offset slowing shipments to the United States.
Chinese exports rose 5.5% last year to $3.77 trillion, customs data showed, while imports were flat at $2.58 trillion. The trade surplus in 2024 was $992 billion.
In December, Chinese exports rose 6.6% in dollar terms from a year earlier, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s. An increase of 5.9% year on year. Imports rose 5.7% year on year in December, up from 1.9% in November.
Economists expect exports to continue to support China’s economy this year, despite trade frictions and geopolitical tensions.
“We continue to expect exports to be a major growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
While Chinese exports to the US have fallen sharply since President Donald Trump returned to power escalated its trade war with the world’s second largest economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
Strong exports have helped China’s economy continue to grow close to its official target annually about 5%while alarm is being raised in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports is hurting local industries.
The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called on China to redress its economic imbalances and accelerate the shift away from dependence on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.
A prolonged downturn in China’s real estate sector after authorities cracked down on excessive lending, forcing many developers into bankruptcy, continues to weigh on consumer confidence and domestic demand.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, predicts China’s exports will grow by about 3% in 2026, down slightly from about 5% growth in 2025. He expects the trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.
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