Most of the sports world will be focused on the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night, but there’s an NBA tie-breaker game in store: the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday in the first game of a home-and-home set.
The atmosphere within the association can change quickly, but at the moment both the Cavaliers and the Timberwolves seem to be on the rise.
The Cavs have won four of five games, including back-to-back victories against the Spurs, Suns and Nuggets. The Wolves also won four of five in those games with a difference of plus 15 points.
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves odds, prediction
The Cavaliers are almost at full strength, but are still waiting for the debut of Max Strus who has been out since the summer with a foot injury.
Darius Garland, who has battled a toe injury all season, has shown improvement over the last ten games, averaging 20 points on a 50/40/90 split over that stretch. Donovan Mitchell is day-to-day after halftime in the Cavs’ last game — a big reason why the line isn’t known yet — but the team is returning to form after a slow start.
On the Minnesota side, it was all about Anthony Edwards, who has made another leap this season. Edwards is posting career highs in scoring (29 points per game) and shooting (50 percent from the field, 40 percent from beyond the arc) while looking effortless every night.
The Cavaliers have performed well defensively during this stretch, but will have a hard time containing Edwards with the way he’s playing. Conversely, the Wolves are good at taking away from the three-point line and three-point shots make up about 42 percent of the Cavs’ attempts, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
As the Cavs try to get the ball inside, they will be up against Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid, who anchor a defense that allows the fourth-lowest perimeter percentage in the NBA and the sixth-highest percentage.
The Cavaliers have played some tough teams lately, but I like the Wolves covering the spread here. I expect this line to reach somewhere between 4 and 5.5 points with the Wolves as home favorites and the Wolves should cover to -6.
The play: Timberwolves -3 (-110, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He is a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and martial arts. He spends his winter weeknights looking for NBA player prop benefits with more money.
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