Cardano (ADA) at a crucial moment: 20% decline or 50% increase ahead?

“Every little jump we get is an easy short until conditions change,” said one X user.

Analysts are now divided; some foresee that the price will chart additional losses in the short term, while others believe a major rebound is on the way.

More pain ahead?

At the time of writing, ADA is trading around $0.36 (according to CoinGecko data) and is well below its local peak of above $1 earlier this year. Meanwhile, the market cap fell below $13.5 billion, pushing the asset further away from crypto’s top 10 club.

Renowned analyst Ali Martinez observed the asset’s recent performance and assumed its valuation could continue to slide towards the $0.29 support zone. Such a decline would represent a decline of 20% from current levels.

That’s what Martinez was for argued that ADA’s “SuperTrend” had turned bearish, recalling that the last time this happened the price fell 80%.

X user node too predicted a further disadvantage for Cardano’s native token. The market participant revealed that they have found “solace” in shorting ADA, softening the impact of the potential bear market.

“Every little jump we get is an easy short (on basically everything) until conditions change,” she added.

The chances of a rally

Despite the decline, those predicting ADA to rise significantly in the near future are just as vocal. X user Marzell claimed the asset is showing the first signs of a recovery, with bullish RSI/MACD divergence. Nevertheless, he noted that the price remains below the 50- and 100-day MAs, suggesting that a move towards $0.50 would depend heavily on a breakout from the current area.

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Meanwhile, key metrics indicate the token is gearing up for a pump. ADA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30, which indicates oversold territory and could be followed by a rally.

The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and is often used by traders to spot possible trend reversals. As mentioned above, values ​​below 30 are considered bullish for the price, while values ​​above 70 warn of a possible correction.

ADA’s exchange net flows are also worth observing. In recent months, outflows have significantly exceeded inflows, indicating that investors have shifted from centralized platforms to self-custody methods. This in turn reduces the immediate selling pressure.