Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher
In mischief —A dash of happiness Through Old fashioned
Breeder: Aaron and Marie Jones LLC (KY)
A day after being honored with an Eclipse Award as the 2025 2-year-old male champion, Ted Noffey was back at work at Palm Beach Downs for two-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, running a half-mile in :50.81 in the company of Jan. 23. The wind was clearly not meant to be demanding as this was his first half-mile since capping a 4-for-4 campaign at 2 by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). His training rider kept him under a hammer blow the entire time. A three-time Grade 1 winner, two of which are on one route, he has proven himself in battle in ways that others on this list have not. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) is next on February 28.
Watch: Half to Sandman lands in Derby Dozen Off Flashy debut
2. Further Ad 
Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Brad Cox
Rifle runner —Sky dreamer Through Sky Mesa
Breeder: John C. Oxley (KY)
After his 1 3/4 length victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on November 29 at Churchill Downsin which he seemed to finish quite quickly at the canter, trainer Brad Cox gave him a small break. Can understand the move as the colt regressed on speed figures in the KJC from his 20-length romp in his first two-turn test while racing in a 1 1/16 mile race at Keeneland a month earlier. He resumed the breeze on January 25 with a 3 furlong breeze at 37 at Payson Park as Cox gets him back into the current. Probably three or four workouts away from being race fit.
Furthermore, Ado wins the 2025 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs
3. Commandment
Owner/trainer: Wathnan Racing/Cox
In mischief—Sippican Harbour Through Orb
Breeder: Lee Pokoik (KY)
Cox gave this one a few weeks off after his standout victory in the 1-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on January 3 at Gulfstream Park– a race that surprisingly does not award any qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, even though some other 1-turn races do. So this colt is still at 0 on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. His other victory came in a second-out 7-furlong first score in the fall at Churchill Downs. A potential showdown with Ted Noffey could take place in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, although there are always a number of other Derby options available.
4. Paladin
Owner/Trainer: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith and Summer Wind Equine/Chad Brown
Rifle runner—Secret sigh Through Carpet
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine (KY)
After winning his debut via disqualification, Paladin took the Remsen Stakes (G2) last fall to stamp himself as a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender. As for the Remses not producing a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch wore the Garland of Roses in 1995, it’s best to chalk it up to bad luck. It has run some high quality horses, such as the 1-2 finishers of the 2023 race: the eventual winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1) Dornoch and eventual winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Sierra Leone . The latter – saddled by Paladins trainer Chad Brown – missed the Derby by a nose when he finished second after a ground-saving move. Mystical Daan .
5. Brant
Owner/Trainer: Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert
Rifle runner—Tynan Through Liam’s card
Breeder: PTK (KY)
While there are concerns about this colt at the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance after falling to third in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, one thing that isn’t in question is Brant’s talent. He’s a gifted horse, bought last year as a $3 million juvenile and going on to win his first two starts, including the 2025 Del Mar Futurity (G1). Fully expect him to have a successful campaign on short routes in California this year, but less excited about his prospects at 1 1/8 miles and beyond when compared to deeper setups.
6. Litmus test
Owner/Trainer: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Vastbedelen Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan/Baffert
Nyquist —Study hard Through Mort MM
Breeder: Machmer Hall (KY)
Six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has repeatedly said that extra distance suits this colt. Late last year he showed off a nice finish by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), a race that won the 2025 Preakness Stakes (G1). Journalism set in 2024. However, the litmus test did not stand out in the same way in winning that race. Before that race, he finished third once and fourth twice in three Class 1 events out of 2 last year; entered in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Parka race postponed from January 31 to Friday, February 6 due to the freezing temperatures in Arkansas.
Owner/Trainer: Pin Oak Stud/Riley Mott
Bolt d’Oro —Sapphire Spitfire Through Great weather
Breeder: Dean Bir & DVM (KY)
This Riley Mott trainee will return to action for the first time since winning the Street Sense Stakes (G3) on October 26 at Churchill Downs when he competes in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on January 31 at Gulfstream Park. The short stretch that comes in handy in 1 1/16-mile races could prove to be a disadvantage for a horse with his late-running style, but at least he pulled the rail, which may have helped him keep his rivals in range. His 5-furlong training in company in 1:02.30 on January 23 at Palm Meadows does not stand out so quickly, but he was always much easier on the road than his colleague Whine country and easily left him with a signal from his rider to gallop out.
8. Golden Age
Owner/Trainer: Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stable/Cherie DeVaux
Curl —Carrumba by Bernardini
Breeder: Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables (KY)
Curlin’s descendants consistently produce on dirt routes, and he was no exception in the January 17 Lecomte Stakes (G3) on Fair Grounds Race Track and Slot Machines. Despite having just one six-furlong victory to his name, he ran the 1 1/16-mile distance like a seasoned pro, leaving the opposition behind with a rally from the latter to improve to 2-for-2. With the Fair Grounds surface playing fast, his time of 1:44.98 gave him weak speed numbers across the board. There is clearly room for further development.
9. Strategic risk
Owner/trainer: John Oxley/Mark Casse
Noble Bird —Strategy Through Read Alex
Breeder: John Oxley Living Trust (FL)
Like other horses at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas (plus those boarded in Kentucky, Maryland, New York and other states), his training has been affected in recent days by the harsh winter weather. Practice was canceled on Jan. 27 at Oaklawn, just like the day before. One advantage he has from a fitness perspective is that he has maintained an active racing schedule, winning the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream on November 29 before adding the January 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn; registered to compete in the Southwest Stakes, which has been postponed from Saturday to Friday, February 6.
10. Almost
Owner/Trainer: Centennial Farms/Pletcher
Not this time —Ib Prospecting Through Mineshaft
Breeder: Wind Hill Farm (FL)
He and fellow Pletcher intern Class president posted the co-fastest half-mile breeze on Jan. 24 at Palm Beach Downs, clocking in the distance: 48.59. That quick work suggests another top performance is on the way in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes (G3) for this newcomer, who has enjoyed some fine triumphs at Gulfstream this winter. However, none of these victories came around two turns, so the Sacred Taurus should tell us a lot. His mother’s two victories came in sprints, although there are endurance elements elsewhere in his pedigree.
11. Canaletto
Owner/trainer: Magnier, Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brant and Brook Smith/Brown
In mischief—Distorted music Through Distorted humor
Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (KY)
Making his debut in a maiden race on January 25 at Gulfstream, the long-riding colt impressed by showing manageable speed under Flavien Prat, a burst of speed when asked to increase his pace on the turn, and then a strong finish to score by 8 lengths. The $1 million yearling clocked a mile in 1:36.28 and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 89 and an Equibase Speed Figure of 94. A son of Into Mischief and a half-brother to ranking winners She can’t sing And Sandman In addition to talent, he also has pedigree. These strengths will have to compensate for his limited experience if he is to achieve Derby success. It’s not impossible. To justify (2018) and Magician (2023) won the Derby after a promising winter debut as a three-year-old.
Canaletto wins in debut Jan. 24 at Gulfstream Park
12. Blackout time
Owner/trainer: Brookdale Racing, Lance Gasaway and Magdalena Racing/Kenny McPeek
Not this time —Beauty salon Through Elusive quality
Breeder: Newstead Corp (KY)
We return to the published work tab for the first time since it was a regulatory scratch of the October 31st Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Seahe joins the Derby Dozen rankings, and he has the potential to rise further if his training goes smoothly. He still needs to take in a 5 furlong breeze to work his way off the vet’s list, along with completing medication tests and other protocols. Having only completed his first three-eighths, we likely won’t see the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up in action until March.
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