You can kind of understand what Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis was getting at when he replaced Jakub Dobes in net with Sam Montembeault after he and the Habs were shut out 7-2 by the Colorado Avalanche last Saturday. But even though it was easy to justify, the end result clearly left a lot to be desired as Montembeault looked terrible the next game as he and the team in front of him were embarrassed by losing 5-2 to division rival Ottawa Senators.
Somehow, this madness has to end, with the Canadiens consistently switching goaltenders from game to game, which may have contributed to their side’s inconsistency. With Dobes getting back into the win column next game against the Winnipeg Jets, this is a logical place to start.
Dobes is currently a stronger goalkeeper than Montembeault
It’s fair to say that Montembeault got off to a good start last Friday against the Vegas Golden Knights, taking the 4-1 victory. However, the fact that the Canadiens would face the Avalanche the following afternoon necessitated a switch. Now that Dobes was shot at as he did, albeit against a historically dominant teamSt. Louis probably felt like Montembeault deserved the next start. The problem is that Dobes has been much stronger overall this season, now with a 9-3-2 record, a 3.11 goals-against average and an .891 save percentage this season. Montembeault, meanwhile, is 5-6-1 with a 3.61 GAA and .861 SV%. Although they have each been given thirteen starts, only one has strung together a victory.
“Stringing wins together” is admittedly a loose representation of what is going on, in all honesty, but without any fault on Dobes’ part. In 26 games, excluding back-to-backs, the Canadiens have changed goalies 15 times this season, five of them coming after wins, which smacks of what you would typically call shooting yourself in the foot. Four of those five times came after a Dobes win, which, while unfair on its face, makes sense based on the mentality the Canadiens must have had regarding their goaltending situation heading into the season.
Montembeault has had a hugely successful 2024-2025 season, ranking among the league leaders in goals saved above expectations (according to MoneyPuck.com), was part of the Canadian 4 Nations Face-Off team and led the Canadiens to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, as their undisputed starter. It should come as no surprise that a) he would also be an unquestioned starter this season and b) St. Louis would give him the benefit of the doubt. However, if American Thanksgiving is a sufficient sample size to determine which teams are likely to make/miss the playoffs, it is large enough to determine that Montembeault is not the solution.
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Is Dobes? Maybe, maybe not. However, at the age of 24, he has shown significant potential. His ceiling is relatively unknown. In Montembeault, you’re talking about a 29-year-old who, to his credit, impressively climbed the depth chart from third stringer when he was first claimed for the 2021-2022 season, as a backup, as a platoon starter with Jake Allen, to undisputed No. 1.
But while Dobes’ development needs to be handled with care, it’s hard to see Montembeault continuing his rise to reach the top goalkeepers in the league. It’s entirely possible, even likely, Canadiens fans have already seen the best version of Montembeault, and there’s nothing wrong with that. They just have higher expectations for top prospect Jacob Fowler. And if they have higher expectations for Fowler, they won’t be satisfied with the statistically average goaltending that Montembeault has delivered overall.
Last season was the only season in which Montembeault, as number 1, conceded fewer than three goals per game (2.80), while in the others he received as much playing time as he did due to a lack of viable alternatives and lack of pressure to make the play-offs. Things have clearly changed as expectations for 2025-2026 have increased. Because the margin for error is so small, St. Louis can’t afford to keep giving Montembeault opportunities when Dobes, simply put, has given the Canadiens more chances to win every night.
Splitting the rest of the way may have been a luxury the organization had a few seasons ago, when it didn’t really matter how low they finished in the standings. Now they don’t necessarily have to go with the hot hand, but put their trust in someone who is game-in, game-out, allowing them to get into a groove, which they did effectively with Montembeault last season. However, if last season’s Montembeault isn’t available, you’ll have to take a different tack.
Canadiens are faced with having to change the current goaltending trajectory
If you’re the Canadiens, you’re not going to rush Fowler to the NHL this season. That would be an unnecessary overcorrection that would jeopardize the development of potentially the team’s best goaltender since Carey Price, especially since, God forbid, not making the playoffs would be viewed as an unfortunate, nasty setback rather than a disaster that would result in a shakeup of the roster and front office.
You could try trading for immediate help in net, but if you’re general manager Kent Hughes, would you trade Dobes the other way (the Habs don’t keep three goalies), who actually gets wins with any regularity? You’d probably try to trade Montembeault instead, but his value is at the point where other teams probably won’t give him serious consideration due to his current issues and lack of a long track record of success.
That leaves the status quo intact, meaning we’ll continue with a combination of Montembeault and Dobes, but that clearly doesn’t work as well on the ice as it does on paper. Adjustments need to be made, and adjustments mean less adjustments from game to game overall.
No more excuses for Montembeault
Admittedly, there have been instances where St. Louis has started Dobes multiple times in a row, which suggests he will get more opportunities. But every time St. Louis returns to Montembeault to give Dobes a rest, on each of these occasions it’s almost as if he’s looking for an excuse to return to Montembeault permanently and return to the status quo of last season, when it no longer applied. Dobes is a year closer to his peak, Montembeault a year further away from his.
The latest set of games is a good example. Dobes started and won back-to-back games against the Toronto Maple Leafs (Nov. 22) and Utah Mammoth (Nov. 26), then Montembeault understandably got the Golden Knights last Friday afternoon ahead of the Avalanche game, where everyone knows what happened. However, if the reverse scenario had played out last season, St. Louis likely would have returned to Montembeault after the 7-2 win, because Montembeault was his No. 1 and bad games are inevitable for any goalie…emphasis on “was.” Maybe it’s time for St. Louis to stop looking at Montembeault as its No. 1.
Considering they’re already starting to split 50/50, that should be crystal clear to everyone, including St. Louis. With Fowler in the mix, there was already a time when Montembeault needed to clear a path. The fact that the time may come sooner than expected is not necessarily a bad thing. Persisting too long in stark contrast, however, would be just that.
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