James M. Dorsey of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies looks at the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and discusses whether Israel will commit to the agreement.
To watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/can-the-gaza-ceasefire-agreement
[Auskar Surbakti] James M. Dorsey is an adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Really nice to have you with us again, James.
This has been a long time in the making. We still have a ceasefire agreement that all parties agree on. As we heard from Nizar, a number of countries, including Turkey, the United States and Qatar, are guarantors of this deal.
Are you hopeful that this deal will hold up?
[James M. Dorsey] Oscar, nice to be with you. I think we will see, as a number of analysts have suggested, a ceasefire. The question is for how long.
We will see the release of prisoners held in Amash in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. First of all, we don’t know exactly what the modalities of all this are. It seems that one has to assume that although the modalities have not yet been announced, they have been agreed upon, which I think is encouraging to believe that this first phase of the agreement will happen.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. In other words, we don’t know whether Israel will commit to this agreement. Israel has been clear from the start that it was forced to sign Trump’s 20-point proposal.
At the same time, Hamas is unlikely to be very happy about this. Hamas puts its confidence in the fact that President Trump, the US president, has pressured Netanyahu to enter into this agreement, and has pledged that Israel will stop the war in Gaza and cooperate in the implementation of the remaining twenty plans. And in a sense, he is getting a guarantee by saying that he will remain committed to putting his credibility on the line with this deal.
But we’ll have to wait and see how that all plays out.
[Auskar Surbakti] Yes, and a number of people, like you, agree that Trump has been a key figure in this second ceasefire. Is there an element of self-interest on his part? We know he has made no secret of the fact that he is vying for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Do you think this played a role in this?
[James M. Dorsey] I have no doubts about it. He projects himself as a peacemaker. He boasts that in his statement he has already resolved seven conflicts since he returned to power in January.
But the two major conflicts, Ukraine and Gaza, have so far eluded him. And so establishing a ceasefire in Gaza is a major achievement. I think we have to keep in mind that without Donald Trump, this wouldn’t have happened.
Now it wouldn’t have happened without the other mediators – Ghatta, Egypt, Turkey. That wouldn’t have happened if both the Israeli public and the Palestinian public, and for that matter a large part of the American public, wanted to see this conflict, this war, end. But as with everything, Donald Trump is going to exploit this for his political and personal interests.
[Auskar Surbakti] Yes, you mentioned the pressure Israel faced both internally and externally. For a while, however, it seemed that the Israeli government was unconcerned with the increasing outcry and condemnation of the genocide in Gaza. Do you think that played a role in pushing Israel to join this deal, the growing international pressure, but also the pressure at home?
[James M. Dorsey] I think it played a role in Donald Trump’s calculations. I’m not sure this played a role in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calculations. He has proven immune to the enormous reputational damage Israel has suffered as a result of its warfare.
And it will cost Israel quite a bit, despite Trump’s promise that he wanted to help Israel restore its image. It will take a long time and quite a bit of work. I think if Netanyahu had had his way, this war would continue.
[Auskar Surbakti] Okay. James M. Dorsey, thank you, as always, for joining the program.
[James M. Dorsey] Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me.
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