In the past 10 years, the Benchmark Nifty and the wider Nifty 500 in seven of the last 10 times higher have been closed during the month. Yet analysts said that the market action could be limited in the coming weeks, with indices that probably remained in a narrow reach in the absence of fresh catalysts.
“As we step in October, the Nifty is expected to stay in the reach of 24,300-25,400,” said Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice president IIFL Capital Services. “Factors such as a lack of clarity about tariff resolution, FII sales and a busy primary market pipeline can also keep indices reach.” This month large IPOs such as Tata Capital, LG and Wework will be planned to get on the market.
Data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services showed that the Nifty and Nifty 500 in October achieved average profit of 0.6% and 0.7%.
In September the Nifty and Nifty 500 won 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.
Agencies“A recovery of the current levels probably seems, given the recent correction, potential gst-guided momentum and festively driven consumption,” said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivative research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Taparia noted that immediate support for the Nifty 24,400 is, with potential to go to 25,250 in the short term. In contrast, American benchmarks shown mixed seasonal in October. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 have won in just five of the last ten years, although the average return for all three indices was positive, between 1.3% and 2%. “While American indices witness the mixed seasonal in October, such patterns have historically limited overflow in Indian markets in October,” Taparia said.
Velayudhan added that the profit season will also be viewed closely. “In the event of progress in the field of tariff solution by the end of the month, a recovery rally cannot be excluded,” he said.
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