CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Last season, when Louisville hired Pat Kelsey following the worst two-season stretch in program history, the immediate goal was simple: respectability.
“There were two tough years before we got here,” Kelsey said Wednesday at ACC Tipoff. “So we couldn’t do anything wrong, right?”
That’s why, even as Kelsey’s Cards stumbled out of the gate, going 6-5 with losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, there was optimism that the 50-year-old would right the ship soon — and he did. As of January, Louisville’s defense ranked 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik, which was right in line with Duke (11th) and Florida (13th) … or half of the Final Four. What did that look like on the field? Seventeen wins in UL’s last 18 conference games, an ACC championship game appearance and the program’s first NCAA tournament berth since 2019.
That’s not just respect.
It’s a reason to move the goalposts a country mile.
“When you go around town now, you’re like, ‘Take that banner,’” J’Vonne Hadley joked. “Last year it was like, ‘Get some wins.’ It’s a little different.”
It’s hard to blame Cards fans for the optimism. Kelsey not only showed proof of concept his first year in town, but he followed that up with one of the most impressive offseasons of any program in the country.
That started with keeping a few key players, including Hadley — whose 7.3 rebounds per game led the team — and Kasean Pryor, arguably the Cards’ top talent before tearing his ACL in late November. (And don’t forget Aly Khalifa, the former BYU big man and passing savant who redshirted last season while recovering from knee surgery.)
That’s a strong foundation, but Kelsey clearly needed more. And as a perfect example of modern roster construction, Louisville left no stone unturned.
Of course, that meant turning to high school — and in Mikel Brown Jr., a top-10 prospect and projected NBA lottery pick, Kelsey landed the kind of high-profile recruit the program hadn’t had in recent seasons. But Kelsey also followed the trend of going international in college basketball, signing 22-year-old German pro Sanandra Fru to bolster Louisville’s frontcourt; Fru has since become one of the most high-profile foreign additions in the entire sport. And finally, Kelsey emptied the Cards’ coffers into the transfer portal, landing a trio of wings — Ryan Conwell (Xavier), Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State) and Isaac McKneely (Virginia) — who were among The Athletic’s 35 best available transfers. All three shot above 41 percent from deep, on more than five attempts per game.
“We have a lot of weapons,” Conwell said. “They won’t be able to trap or deny us all.”
It’s clear what Kelsey’s offensive game plan is, given both his history and how the Cards looked last season. According to CBB Analytics, Louisville took 75.4 percent of its shots at the rim or from the 3 last season, which ranked 16th among major teams. And the reason that number wasn’t higher? Well, because honestly, the Cards weren’t necessarily efficient with those perimeter looks. Of the 15 teams with a higher “rim + 3” attempt percentage, only LSU – which went 14-18 and was one of two SEC teams to miss the NCAA Tournament – and Marquette shot worse than Louisville.
But the offensive strategy itself? With the right talent it clearly works. Five of the 15 teams ahead of Louisville made the Sweet 16 last season, including Duke and Florida, the latter of which won the national title.
And now it certainly looks like Louisville has the requisite talent.
“We’ll be able to score the ball,” Kelsey said. “I don’t think there’s any fault in that.”
Kelsey’s defensive tightening midway through last season suggests he can configure a competent defense again, too, especially with the versatile pieces he’s put together. James Scott, UL’s best (and only?) rim protector, may be gone, but in Fru and Pryor — whose block rate would have been top-10 in the ACC had he played the entire season — Kelsey has two other capable options. Then look at Kelsey’s overall size on the perimeter, with 6-foot-4 guard Kobe Rogers as the player on UL’s shortest rotation, and the ingredients are there for a second straight stout defense.
The only real question then?
How Kelsey handles the expectations of the Final Four, especially in his second season at the highest level, and how he helps his players navigate them.
“I don’t necessarily see it as pressure; I just feel it as an expectation. The rich history of Louisville, the rich culture of Louisville – that’s what Louisville is,” Hadley said. “Louisville basketball is about winning. It brings those banners, and I think we really have a chance to do that this year.”
Louisville’s schedule — which Kelsey joked features the NBA’s Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers — should make that clear early on, or not. The Cards host rival Kentucky in the second week of the regular season, go to Arkansas for the ACC-SEC Challenge, play Indiana in Indianapolis, host Memphis and then head to Tennessee… all before Christmas.
It’s the kind of early-season gauntlet that, if done right, creates a seasonal track for the things Louisville thinks are possible. But the downside is also possible. Cracks that show that even with all the pieces and resources at Louisville’s disposal, the cards may not be completely there.
On paper it all looks and sounds good. But once the games start, all that feel-good talk won’t matter anymore.
Only whether, for the first time in a decade, Louisville has the horses to win it all.
“We’re back to what it should be in Louisville, with those kinds of expectations. There are big expectations on the shoulders of this team,” Kelsey said. “But if I do my job and our guys operate the way they’re supposed to, don’t worry about what people say over the course of the season, you know? It just stays steady and consistent: through the ups, the downs, the good and the bad.”
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