DJust before the grand final of the ATP season in Turin, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner’s show had already started. Although the two rivals are locked in a battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking, rumors emerged early Friday morning that they would train together. Sure enough, that afternoon they entered the stadium field side by side and were greeted by a deafening roar from a sizable crowd.
The practice set that followed attracted as much attention as many matches this year. Thousands of viewers watched the livestream, after which the highlights were quickly available. The scores from practice sets usually do not leave the practice court, but on this occasion the tennis world quickly learned that Sinner had ended the day with a 6-3 victory. They commemorated the moment with a selfie that immediately spread like wildfire across social media.
This is their tour now. Even when Alcaraz suffered a narrow loss to Cameron Norrie in his opening match at the Paris Masters, the streak that has defined this year’s ATP season continued with Sinner’s subsequent victory: every time Alcaraz and Sinner have competed in a tournament this year, one of them has ended the week with the title. On most occasions, including the last three Grand Slam tournaments, they have faced each other in the final.
After years of anticipation and predictions of dominance, these performances reflect two exceptional players who have already established themselves as all-time greats at such a young age. But this season has also had a bad impact on the quality of the rest of the field. Ahead of the ATP Finals, the most important question is whether a player is seriously capable of stopping Alcaraz and Sinner.
As things stand, their prospects are bleak. According to the ATP rankings, Alexander Zverev is the third best player in the world. He also currently has less than half as many ATP points as Alcaraz at No. 2. Zverev remains one of the most successful players to never win a grand slam tournament, but he has been outclassed by Sinner and Alcaraz in their most important matches and the gap only seems to be widening. Since being completely overpowered by Sinner at the Australian Open, Zverev’s season has been unimpressive.
Considering he reached the semi-finals of all four Grand Slam tournaments this year, Novak Djokovic has shown that he is probably the third best player in the world. In theory, his chances of beating Sinner and Alcaraz are better in the best of three sets and indoors than deep into the grand slam tournaments, but he is in the Athens final on Saturday and has yet to decide whether to compete in Turin. The five games in his legs over the past week would certainly be even more damaging to his chances of success in Italy.
There are more doubts all over the field. Taylor Fritz has had an excellent year and has managed to find herself in the top five. His mental strength, continued improvement and the well-rounded game he has built behind his huge serve are admirable, but it is difficult not to see him as a player who is utilizing all his potential, rather than a competitor with enough room for improvement to close the gap to the top two.
In his first ATP Finals, Ben Shelton is the youngest of the six challengers and perhaps the most interesting addition. On the one hand, he has enormous potential with his nuclear save, aggression and athleticism. But there are also holes in his game, especially his backhand and return of serve, which Sinner and Alcaraz have exploited with ease.
Alex de Minaur has admirably reached the ATP Finals for the second time in his career, but his play is sub-par against the very best. The final place in the draw will be determined on Saturday. Should Lorenzo Musetti beat Djokovic to win the ATP 250 event in Athens, he would skip the in-form Félix Auger-Aliassime in the ATP race and become the final automatic qualifier.
Just as striking as the competitors in Turin are the absences. The dramatic battle of Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev, three regular top 10 players not so long ago, has not helped. Serious injuries to Jack Draper, in the middle of a monumental season, and Arthur Fils, the immensely talented 21-year-old who seemed to be in the middle of a breakthrough year, have weakened the chasers. No one else has come close to stepping up.
For everyone but Sinner and Alcaraz, the prospect of winning this year’s ATP Finals seems very remote. Still, in a tournament with the best players in the world, with the pressure firmly on the shoulders of the two favorites, every match is an opportunity for the challenger to show what he is capable of. The coming days will show who, if anyone, is willing to go a step further.
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