Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against Diego Lopes on January 31 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. The rematch puts Volkanovski at -154 to -160, while Lopes sits between +120 and +145 at the major sportsbooks. These odds reflect confidence in the champion, but recognize the real threat of the challenger.
The gambling market expects a long fight. The total number of rounds is 4.5, with the over prize being -106 and the under prize being -120. Oddsmakers favor Volkanovski winning by decision at +165, the same method he used in their April meeting at UFC 314. That unanimous decision victory produced scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 48-47, with Volkanovski outscoring Lopes 158 to 63 in significant strikes.
Volkanovski’s final story suggests that a decision is the likely outcome. During his 27 career wins, he recorded 13 knockouts and three submissions, giving him a 61.5 percent finishing percentage. In the UFC featherweight division specifically, the 37-year-old has relied heavily on decisions, scoring 11 of his 27 total wins this way. His submission attempts average just 0.2 per 15 minutes, ranking him among the lowest in the division. The odds reflect this pattern, with Volkanovski at +1200 by submission and Volkanovski by knockout at +300 to +430, depending on the book. See more songs and play more games on slotoro casino.
UFC 325 Betting Preview: Can Alexander Volkanovski Finish Diego Lopes in Sydney?
The betting markets show limited confidence in a strike. The fight that doesn’t go the distance is at -134, suggesting either man has about a 43 percent chance of finishing. Datum Volkanovsky’s decision-oriented approach and Lopes’ granite chin remains the most likely scenario another five-round fight. If a finish happens, Lopes by knockout between rounds two and four offers the best value of +300, taking advantage of his power and the champion’s recent vulnerability. Volkanovski presents by entry at +1200 lottery odds given his low career entry rate.
Lopes, 31 years old, has physical advantages in height and reach. His durability has proven exceptional, having only been finished by knockout twice in 34 professional fights. This resilience makes an early Volkanovski finish unlikely, despite the champion’s home advantage in Sydney.
A first-round finish seems far away for both fighters. Lopes has 15 first-round finishes in his career, but struggled to effectively implement that early aggression in their first meeting. The champion’s ring generalship and movement frustrated Lopes’ pressure tactics, forcing the Brazilian to chase and leave himself open to counterattacks.
Volkanovski’s support from the home crowd and the almost year-long layoff should benefit the aging champion. Whether that translates into a finish remains doubtful. The smart money is backing a different decision, just as the odds suggest.
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