Caleb Durbin, which proves doubters incorrectly

In December last year, the Brewers Devin Williams, who had been one of the most effective relievers in the history of baseball without exaggeration until that time. Williams’ heartbreaking last performance with the Brewers made his departure that most fans were already expecting, tastier. His painful season in the Bronx this year only improves that feeling.

But at that time many thought that the return for Williams was light. Milwaukee received Nestor Cortes Jr., a solid starter with an alarming injury history, and a middle perspective, the soon 25-year-old, 5-foot-7 third Honkman Caleb Durbin, who had not yet appeared in a Major League match. Durbin had flashed some speed and contact, but he did not hit much strength and there were questions about his viability on the left side of the inner field. Given the progressive age of Durbin (for a prospect) and physical limitations, and the injury problems that turn out to be very real about Cortes, it was easy to feel that the Brewers had just not received enough for Williams, who came in 2025 with a 1.83 ERA (231 ERA+).

It was especially easy to feel like this after a fleeting look at the relievers that had changed from teams before the Handelsdeadline of 2024, which could not have a resume, almost as accomplished as Williams. San Diego gave up a total of five decent prospects, including four of their top five and the MLB pipeline of the players arranged as the No. 44 and 76 prospects at that time, to acquire Jason Adam from Tampa Bay and Tanner Scott from Miami. Kansas City exchanged their number 2 prospect And The no. 39 pick in the 2024 design to acquire Hunter Harvey.

Instead, the Brewers were tied to Cortes – who was still hurt that was still injured after he had missed most of the 2024 season – and Durbin. Let’s omit the Cortes part of this conversation for the time being; It turned out he wax Hurt, and he made two performances in Milwaukee, one of which was literally one of the worst starts of all time. He was traded again before he completed rehabilitation on the arm injury that kept him outside from 3 April to 6 August.

Durbin wasn’t that precisely A non-outlook. He achieved the top perspective rankings of the Yankees organization, usually in the middle of the teenage years or something. But he certainly didn’t have a blue chip past. Durbin played college ball at Division III Washington University of St. Louis. He spent his summers playing in the Northwoods League and the Florida Collegiate League. He was set up in the 14^one Round through the Braves and only a few months later traded to the Yankees.

Once Durbin came to the small competitions, he was productive. He had a .352 OBP and stable 31 bases in 36 attempts in his first full season in the minors in 2022. In 2023 he hit .304/.395/.427 between high-a Hudson Valley and Double-a Somerset. He had an OPS more than 1,000 in the Arizona Fall League in 2023. In 2024 he hit .275/.388/.451 with 31 stolen bases in 35 attempts in a season usually on Triple-A. He went back to the Arizona Fall League and blew away the competition record for stolen bases (who had been 24), with 29 in 30 attempts in just 24 games.

So when Durbin arrived with the Brewers, it was not as if he had no statistical record. The most optimistic prognosticators compared him with Jose Altuve, a similar Little Infielder. (These were not good comparisons; Alantuve, who has an MVP price and a good shot in the Hall of Fame, had torn the minors at a much younger age.) But the more realistic expectations were that Durbin might not have been able to play third because of a weak arm, he might never be enough and his lack of power was a problem. Most thought that he might be a useful utility, but probably had no future as a good daily player.

Durbin started the 2025 season in Triple-a Nashville, but because of the struggles of Oliver Dunn at the level of Big League and a good start of Durbin (he hit .278 and hit .481 in 13 games with the sounds), Durbin made his main debut in which he packed a few hits.

Since then it went well. In 125 games that play on Tuesday, Durbin .262/.337/.402 (a 106 Ops+) hit with 24 Doubles and 11 Homers, a lake than he had ever hit as a professional in a season. His defense was well rated: he is worth 0.8 dwarf according to baseball reference and 2.5 runs above average according to Fangraphs. He has earned a reputation as a clutch butcher, stimulated by a Walk-Off Homer on 7 June.

All this made me think: Brewers -fans (including me!) Were disappointed not to get a top 100 prospect for Williams, but what is the real “hit rate” on the top 100 prospects, and how was Durbin done in 2025 compared to what you would expect from a top 100 prospect? Do we get too attached to that numbering system? I wanted to investigate a random year – I chose 2015, long enough since we could get a clear picture, but not so long ago that scouting practices would be very different – to see how the players actually do on the top 100 lists.

I looked at the MLB pipeline list prior to the 2015 season. As I am sure you would find on a prospect list of the past 30 years, there are superstars, busts and everything in between. I broke up a bit to get an idea of ​​how good durbin’s seasonal slots are in it. First, career numbers:

What about numbers of one season? How many players on the top 100 prospect list of 2015 have earned more than the 2.6 War Durbin has in 2025 in each season?

Durbin has already offered a single-season value better than half of all top 100 prospects of 2015 and seems to be well on the way to earn career value that would place him in the top third or so. Has Matt Arnold and the Front Office of the Brewers know (Or, at least, strongly suspicious) that Durbin would offer value that was good in accordance with the average Top 100 outlook? That is another question, one that I would be fascinated to know the answer at an honest moment. But it is clear that the actual production of Durbin is about in line with what the Brewers could have expected from a top 100 outlook.

One of the “Moneyball” principles was not to discriminate on productive players because they did not look like traditional athletes. The small figure of Durbin is perhaps an obstacle, but it is by no means suggesting that he cannot be a solid player. The Bewers may have seen Durbin as a player who, because of that one obvious physical disadvantage, was undervalued. It is quite possible that the Front Office from Brewer expected that they could get the top 100 value of Durbin, even if the ranking of the public prospects did not see him that way.

The Williams trade is a stranger; The two “headliners” both suffered 2025 by horrible seasons and go to a free desk with a lot to prove. But in Durbin, the Brewers received the price of this deal, even if he was overwhelming for many observers at the time. He could be a fixture of the Milwaukee -Infield for years.