The college football conference championship weekend is upon us and continues Saturday with some huge Power 4 matchups. The schedule begins with the Big 12 Championship between the BYU Cougars (11-1) and Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1). Texas Tech is in fourth place and a lock for the College Football Playoff, while BYU likely needs a win for a spot in the 12-team field.
Let’s take a look at my top picks for the Big 12 Championship.
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds
Moneyline: BYU +385 / Texas Tech -500
Spread: BYU +12.5 (-110) / Texas Tech -12.5 (-110)
Total: More than 49.5 (-110) / Less than 49.5 (-110)
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best bet #1: Under 49.5 (-110)
These two teams faced off on November 8 in Lubbock, where Texas Tech cruised to a 29-7 victory. The Red Raiders forced three turnovers and there’s no reason they can’t do it again. After all, they are No. 2 in the entire country in takeaways this season with 27. This is simply a dominant defense. Texas Tech gives up the third fewest points per game at 11.3 (only Ohio State and Indiana are superior in that regard). The unit is No. 1 against the run (68.9 yards per play allowed) and No. 5 in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.4). After holding BYU to seven points, the Red Raiders limited UCF to nine points and then eliminated West Virginia. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (four interceptions, seven forced fumbles) could get an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
The Cougars’ own defense is part of the reason why points will likely be in short supply on Saturday. BYU ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed. It’s true that Texas Tech made seven scoring plays in the first meeting between these two teams, but five of those plays resulted in field goals and only two of its scoring plays went for more than 59 yards. Only 36 points were scored in the first head-to-head match and a relatively low-scoring match was expected to lie ahead.
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best player prop bet: Cameron Dickey Over 86.5 rushing yards (-114)
While BYU’s defense is great, it can be a bit vulnerable against the run (119.0 rushing yards allowed per game on 3.7 yards per attempt). The Red Raiders had no trouble moving the ball on the floor against the Cougars in November. Texas Tech collected 149 such yards, 121 of which came from Dickey – who also scored a touchdown on 23 rushes.
That kind of success is nothing new for the sophomore from Austin, Texas, who has 1,023 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns (11 rushing, two receiving). Dickey had a 263-yard performance earlier this year (Oct. 11 against Kansas) and he has gained at least 77 yards in three consecutive games. Asking him to at least reach 87 this weekend shouldn’t be too much.
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