The Derby preparation schedule takes a relative breather this weekend, with just one qualifying points race on the agenda: the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on February 21 at Turfway Park.
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1. Paladin
After scoring in his three-year-old debut in the Feb. 14 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, Paladin jumps to the top of the Derby Dozen, climbing from third. This victory, his third in as many starts, produced his best performance from a visual perspective and in relation to the clock and speed figures. He ran a Chip Honcho loose in the lead and showed tactical speed to gain a forward position and the necessary kick to survive that more than 1 1/8 miles. Combined with another win last year in the Remsen Stakes, he has now proven himself twice at 1 1/8 miles, and the 1 ¼ mile run of the Derby appears to be right in his comfort zone.
2. Further delay
The colt, who hasn’t raced since the fall, drops to second as his win in the Nov. 29 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs doesn’t seem on par with Paladin’s Risen Star triumph. Furthermore, Ado won the Kentucky Jockey Club by 1 ¾ lengths from Universe, who, by a simple yardstick, last finished fourth, beaten by 7 ¾ lengths in the Risen Star. Most of the other Kentucky Jockey Club runners were average at best in the follow-up starts, with the exception of third-place Soldier N Diplomat, the subsequent runner-up in the Southwest Stakes. Let us not forget, however, that Further Ado performed in that first stakes race, just as he had done in his only other route, when he raced to a twenty-length victory at Keeneland on October 10.
3. Almost
Check out the best Beyer Speed Figures of 3 year olds this year and you’ll find his name in the 1-2 spots. He had a 98 Beyer in capturing the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, having posted a 97 one start earlier in an optional seven-furlong allowance claimer to kick off his three-year-old season. Paladin is a bit lower on the list, having run a 93 Beyer in the Risen Star. The Equibase speed figures disagree: Nearly gets a 90 and 92 in his two outings at age 3, compared to a 93 Equibase figure from Paladin in the Risen Star (and a 96 in the Remsen Stakes in December at age 2). Numbers aside, this colt is clearly quite good, having performed three times in a row following a sixth debut at Aqueduct last fall. The March 28 Curlin Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream is next.
4. Commandment
Like Almost, he was off the board in his first start – racing in a six-furlong sprint on October 4 at Keeneland – before improving noticeably with experience and distance. He defeated girls going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs on November 1 and then romped in the January 3 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream over a mile, pulling away to score by 6 ¾ lengths with a final furlong in :12.87. From top to bottom, Mucho Macho Man was relatively soft this year compared to other three-year-old stakes, but Commandment got the win the right way. Now there will be a test around two turns, probably in the February 28 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream.
5. Silent tactics
After a victory in the $1 million Southwest Stakes on Feb. 6 at Oaklawn Park, his stock is rising. At Churchill Downs’ latest kentucky derby future bet which closed on February 15, bettors labeled him as the fifth choice among the individual bets at odds of 19-1. Why this optimism? He blew past horses through the southwest stretch, giving the impression of a horse that should enjoy extra ground. That wasn’t his only good race either. He is 2-2-0 in four starts for Preakness Stakes- and Belmont Stakes-winning trainer Mark Casse, who is chasing his first Derby victory.
6. Brant
Together with Paladin and Further Ado, he is the third Gun Runner colt in the top six of these rankings. Gun Runner, one of the top young bulls in North America, will receive a $250,000 fee at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky. It seems like only a matter of time before he is represented by a Kentucky Derby winner. Sierra Leone came close to achieving that feat for his father two years ago when he finished second by nose shot in the 2024 Derby. Brant, a $3 million purchase at age 2, went 2-0-1 in three starts last year. He romped in his debut, taking the Del Mar Futurity and setting the pace before falling to third in his lone course in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at Del Mar.
7. Litmus test
Brant and Litmus Test, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, are the top two runners from that race still on the Derby course. The victorious Ted Noffey and the runner-up Mr. AP are sidelined due to physical setbacks. Although the Litmus Test did not run as well as Brant in the Juvenile, he was still competitive, racing within a few lengths of the pace throughout and making up a small deficit to be 1 ¾ lengths behind at the finish, just a neck behind his Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Brant. Litmus Test followed up that race with a perfect trip victory in the Dec. 13 Los Alamitos Futurity, finishing his freshman season with a 2-0-1 record in five starts.
8. Apostate
Although he didn’t see action last week, he’s moving up a few positions in the rankings, his form flattered by Paladin’s Risen Star win. This colt finished ahead of that rival when they met first on October 17, but was demoted to second for interference, and then finished a comfortable second to Paladin in the Remsen, checking two lengths behind him. This year, Renegade at 3 was a decisive winner against a regular pack in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, pulling away to win by 3 ¾ lengths, again with another wide trip.
9. Plutarch
The winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is the third Derby Dozen horse for Bob Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer and winner of two Triple Crowns. In addition to the victory at stake, this pedigree includes the strength of Into Mischief, who has produced three Kentucky Derby winners, and the champion mare Stellar Wind. Plutarch seems to be a development type with advantages. The aggressive drive to get him into a forward position in the Lewis looked like a difference maker, keeping him within reach of frontrunner and eventual runner-up Intrepido in a slow race that suited horses close to the lead.
10. Blackout time
After recording his first works at Fair Grounds this winter, he flew five furlongs in one minute at Oaklawn Park on February 11 in preparation for an intended start in the March 1 Rebel Stakes there. He needed five-furlong training there and satisfactory test results to get off the California Horse Racing Board’s vet list, a list of ineligible runners, after suffering a straight scratch during last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. He will return to Fair Grounds in the middle of this week and get his last pre-Rebel breeze this weekend on the winning older horse Gould’s Gold, according to Oaklawn publicist Robert Yates. Blackout Time showed his class last year with a second-place finish between Ted Noffey and Litmus Test in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
11. Canaletto
Speaking to BloodHorse following the Risen Star, trainer Chad Brown seemed to be leaning toward bringing back this dominant debut winner from Jan. 25 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream rather than waiting for the March 7 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Remember, the Fountain of Youth was the comeback target for Ted Noffey before he was taken off the Derby course, so that race is not considered a challenge by rival trainers. Sometimes, however, such a key deviation can lead to multiple coaches having the same “let’s capitalize” mentality, creating a deep field.
12. Golden age
Although he showed in the Risen Star, he disappointed by never getting within reach of the leaders and finishing six lengths back at the finish, hence his slide to the bottom of the leaderboard. Closer in, he beat the girls in sprinting on December 20 and took the January 17 Lecomte Stakes at a high pace, but he didn’t like the pace and flow of the Risen Star as Chip Honcho took the unchallenged lead. Paladin, who had the tactical speed to be close, was the only horse that could cut into the leader’s margin. The twenty-horse battle in the Derby usually leads to a fast pace more suited to Golden Tempo, although with many horses he needs racing luck to pass.
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