Buy, hold, sell? Transfer trends ahead of Gameweek 23

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A largely disappointing Gameweek for many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers has seen plenty of transfer activity since Saturday’s deadline.

Based on matches, form, injuries and bans, these players are transferred/eliminated most often.

Player	Transfers in (around)	Player	Transfers out (round)
Bruno Fernandes	255,327	Phil Foden	242,360
Bryan Mbeumo	121,441	Marc Guehi	113,814
Patrick Dorgu	108,055	Bukayo Saka	90,770
Antoine Semenyo	85,508	Rayan Cherki	73,517
Igor Thiago	84,288	Morgan Rogers	68,891
Gabriel Magalhaes	76,415	Matheus Cunha	67,370
Declan Rice	74,794	Nick Woltemade	56,183
Trevo Chalobah	73,865	Nico O’Reilly	49,633
Florian Wirtz	66,918	Antoine Semenyo	45,410
Enzo Fernandez	59,172	Hugo Ekitike	45,148
Nodri Mukiele	58,951	Michael Keane	35,887
João Pedro	55,251	Micky van de Ven	35,619
Cole Palmer	43,414	Anthony Gordon	35,006

Above: From Monday afternoon, the most bought (left) and most sold (right) players will go to Gameweek 23

But whether it is a good idea remains open to debate.

Here we share our thoughts on who to buy, hold and sell in Gameweek 23.

BRUNO FERNANDES

Bruno Fernandes (£9.2m) made his return from injury in Gameweek 21.

Since then, he has provided two assists, two defensive contribution points (DefCon) and four bonus points against Burnley and Manchester City, amassing 17 points.

It increases his average points per start to 6.1, the third highest of all FPL midfielders.

Michael Carrick’s return to the dugout at Manchester United on Saturday culminated in a 2-0 win against Man City, with Fernandes playing further forward as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1.

He created six chances, one of which was converted by Bryan Mbeumo (£8.1 million), a goal was disallowed for offside and DefCon were awarded double figures.

“I spoke to Bruno, I’ve known him for a long time and I thought he was fantastic today. The way he played the position, he’s so smart and he takes up space. They had a great disciplined role, him and Bryan [Mbeumo] Also defensively, to protect the team as much as possible from anything coming through the middle, so it wasn’t all play and positivity up to that point. He just has so much quality, Bruno can adapt and when he plays in that position he is a real threat and has made the difference.” – Michael Carrick on Bruno Fernandes

When it comes to penalties, free kicks and corners, the question is not whether to buy Fernandes, but rather when to do so.

With a visit to Arsenal coming up, who have the best defensive record in the division, with the fewest goals conceded, fewest shots and most clean sheets, it is not essential to buy Fernandes this week.

The playmaker has produced just one assist in five away games against Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.

That said, Fernandes’ set-piece and penalty kick responsibilities, as well as his DefCon potential, mean a move now could work.

Either way, he really should be a priority from Gameweek 24 onwards when United’s games improve.

VERDICT: BUY, BUT CAN WAIT UNTIL GAMEWEEK 24

MARC GUEHI

Marc Guehi (£5.3 million) has played a crucial role for Crystal Palace this season.

The centre-back has kept seven clean sheets, collected 16 DefCon points and claimed eight bonuses in 20 games, helping him move to fifth in the FPL defender rankings.

Meanwhile, his aerial threat from corners and free kicks, along with his ability to make precise passes beyond the opponent’s defensive line, has contributed to his six attacking returns.

However, Guehi is closing in on a move to Man City, with Pep Guardiola’s side reportedly having agreed a transfer fee of £20million for the England international.

Of Ruben Dias (£5.6 million), Like Guardiol (£6.0 million) and Johannes Stones (£5.4m) injured, Guehi is likely to be ushered into the first XI quickly and become a consistent starter.

Playing for a defense that is currently second in goals conceded and joint second in clean sheets has obvious appeal, especially at a price of just £5.3m.

But given the tricky nature of City’s games away from Wolverhampton Wanderers, it may be wise to assess Guehi’s impact on Pep’s backline, as well as his ability to adapt to a new style of play (i.e. seeing more of the ball in the build-up, playing higher up the pitch), before the schedule begins to improve in Gameweek 26.

VERDICT: HOLD

NICO O’REILLY

After five consecutive blank games, and also failing to start at left back in Gameweeks 21/22, Nico O’Reilly‘s (£5.2m) FPL ownership is starting to decline.

But now that it’s Wolves’ turn, is this really the best time to sell him?

The minute uncertainty is far from ideal, especially at Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7 million) back from the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and Nathan Ake (£5.3m) also offers competition.

So in the longer term, O’Reilly could easily be sold, but it may be best for his owners to retain his services for another Gameweek, especially in light of Wolves’ lack of goal threat.

Although they have improved defensively, Rob Edwards’ side are 18th in expected goals (xG) during their recent four-match unbeaten streak.

As a result, City will feature prominently in all the odds you come across this week.

When Ait-Nouri plays in Europe on Tuesday, we could see a foursome of them Matheus Nunes (£5.5 million), Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.4m), Guehi and O’Reilly against Wolves, which would obviously be attractive for the young left-back.

O’Reilly could then be replaced by a Chelsea or Bournemouth defender in Gameweek 24.

VERDICT: SELLING IN GAMEWEEK 24

COLE PALMER

Cole Palmer (£10.4m) was far from his best against Brentford on Saturday; however, he made no mistake with his second-half penalty, claiming nine points for his 12% ownership.

Encouragingly, Palmer played the full 90 minutes in Gameweek 22.

He has also made his first appearance at DefCon and is now expected to be rested for the home game against Pafos in midweek, making it likely he will be back in the starting line-up for Sunday’s trip to Crystal Palace.

But Palmer is clearly trying to sort out a groin problem and didn’t look fully fit on Saturday.

According to The Athleticshe is “100% fine” medically, but is still struggling to regain full match fitness/sharpness.

And given the intensity of Chelsea’s upcoming schedule, there is a lot of uncertainty, especially in matchweeks 25 and 26.

• Wed 21 Jan: Pafos (h) – Champions League
• Sun 25 Jan: Crystal Palace (a) – Gameweek 23
• Wed 28 Jan: Napoli (a) – Champions League
• Sat 31 Jan: West Ham (h) – Gameweek 24
• Tue February 3: Arsenal (a) – Carabao Cup
• Sat February 7: Wolves (a) – Gameweek 25
• Tue February 10: Leeds (h) – Gameweek 26
• Fri February 13: Hull (a) – FA Cup

It will now be a tricky balancing act for Liam Rosenior as he tries to get his star man back to full fitness.

As a result, it’s probably best for Fantasy managers to remain patient before reassessing the situation ahead of Gameweek 24.

VERDICT: HOLD

BUKYO SAKA

Around the turn of the year, Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) had a run of eight attacking returns in nine games, with 58 points in that period, the third highest of any FPL midfielder.

Crucially, he started eight of those games, averaging 87.4 minutes per start.

But after back-to-back failures and no starts in Gameweek 20 and 22, many of Saka’s owners are losing confidence.

However, there is hope that Saka will now be rested for the next two largely insignificant Champions League games, which would improve his minutes prospects for the upcoming Premier League fixtures.

Even in limited game time against Nottingham Forest on Saturday, Saka was Arsenal’s biggest attacking threat, pressing Matz Sels (£4.6m) in a fine save in the second half. A significant improvement Call Maduyke‘s (£6.8m) shows that you would now expect Saka to start in Gameweek 23.

It’s worth noting that there are also some favorable matches on the horizon, so it may be wise to allow Saka a few more Gameweeks, rather than abandoning him prematurely before this run of matches.

VERDICT: HOLD

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