Gameweek 11 presents several transfer dilemmas for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Based on fixtures, form and injuries, these players are currently experiencing significant transfer activity in (TI(R), below) and away (TO(R), below).
But whether it is a good idea or not remains open to debate.
Here we share our thoughts on who to buy, hold and sell before Saturday’s deadline.
DANNY WELBECK
Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) has scored six goals in his last five appearances, a period in which he averaged 7.4 points per game.
This impressive run of goals has put the veteran back in the England conversation, with Thomas Tuchel set to name his squad for this month’s World Cup qualifiers against Serbia and Albania later this week.
For FPL managers, however, Welbeck’s low shot volume is a potential problem.
The 34-year-old has made just 10 attempts on goal over the past five Gameweeks, fewer than a number of other forwards at a similar price.
He has impressively buried six, as shown below, but Welbeck’s success rate has traditionally hovered around 15% in recent years.
In his last five games that is even 60%, which is of course fantastic, but don’t expect it to stay that way.
Creatively, Welbeck averages just over one key pass every 90 minutes, so there is also limited support potential.
That said, there aren’t many sub-£7.0m strikers raising their hands at the moment. Igor Thiago (£6.2m) might be the best in that price range, but even then it’s not clear given the equipment.
If you already own Welbeck there is an obvious case to keep him as on current form he is certainly a starter and will likely take penalties if James Milner (£5.0 million) is not on the field.
Ideally, though, we’d like to see an increase in his stroke volume before moving him into the buy category.
VERDICT: HOLD
NICK WOLTEMAKT
As Newcastle United were “unrecognizable” in the first half against West Ham United on Sunday, Eddie Howe made the early move to substitute Nick Woltemade (£7.5m) and Anthony Gordon (£7.5m).
Understandably, the owners felt frustrated by this decision, especially as Woltemade had previously failed against Fulham at St James’ Park.
However, the tactical adjustment didn’t really help as the Magpies were unable to maintain any control in the second half, opting to sit back and let their opponents have the ball.
As a result, Woltemade should almost certainly not panic, having previously plundered four goals in six games, but his situation is worth keeping an eye on.
The main concern is not that Yoane warned (£7.3m), which, as pointed out by Howe, will require a “six week pre-season” to get him up to speed, but rather the decline in Newcastle’s attacking output, which is shown below.
But there are reasons for optimism.
Firstly, only Nottingham Forest have attempted more crosses than Newcastle’s 225 this season, a potentially promising sign for Woltemade given his skills.
Additional, Lewis Hall (£5.2m) was back on the bench in Gameweek 10. With both Hall and Tino Livramento (£4.9 million) sidelined due to injury, Then Burns (£5.2m) has largely been played as a left back. He tends to stay a little deeper, which helps their defensive solidity, but it can limit their attacking threat. With Hall back in the starting lineup, the dynamics of Newcastle’s attack should improve immediately.
The fixtures also remain quite good, with favorable clashes against Brentford, Everton, Burnley and Sunderland over the next six matchweeks.
VERDICT: HOLD
TIJJANI REIJNDERS
Tijjani Reijnders (£5.5m), who was on the bench against Bournemouth on Sunday, is on the chopping block for many FPL managers.
His absence from the starting XI was not just a tactical decision; the Dutchman was not fit enough to start. However, with only one assist in nine games, patience ran out.
Reijnders is still making a decent number of shots, with one every 25.6 minutes over the last four gameweeks.
But his number of key passes is low, with just four chances in his last five games.
Furthermore, he will rarely reach the Defensive Contribution threshold (DefCon).
Considering his price, plus the fact that Manchester City have some very good games from Gameweek 13 onwards, it’s probably fine to stick with Reijnders in your squad.
However, the recent impact of Rayan Cherki (£6.3m), who could be City’s soon-to-be-owned midfielder, could push Reijnders back further. Therefore, it could be a good time to offload the Dutchman, especially with Liverpool and Newcastle United next.
We discussed some of the best £6.0m-and-under replacements for Reijnders earlier this week, which you can read about here.
VERDICT: SELL
BRYAN MBEUMO
Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) – a player we recommended buying a few weeks ago – continues to offer significant upside.
The Cameroonian international has scored 32 points in the past four matchweeks, thanks to three goals and one assist.
Crucially, the underlying metrics indicate that its current production is sustainable.
Throughout the season to date, Mbeumo is tied for third among midfielders in terms of shots (24), while his 19 shots into the penalty area are tied for first in his position, tied with Mohammed Salah (£14.2 million).
In fact, he’s had more big opportunities than he has Bruno Fernandes (£8.9 million), by six to five, despite no penalties being taken.
Some of the regular tasks should also contribute to a steady stream of assists.
Given United’s ticker-topping fixture over the next six Gameweeks, there is no reason not to buy Mbeumo.
VERDICT: BUY
BUKYO SAKA
Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) has largely played well of late, despite the lack of attacking returns.
He could and probably should have scored twice against Burnley on Saturday, and he was electric against Fulham in Gameweek 8, clearly establishing himself as Arsenal’s most potent attacking weapon.
Moreover, he has been very unlucky not to provide an assist this season, creating a chance every 39 minutes, a faster pace than any other Arsenal player (minimum of five starts).
But this situation should certainly improve soon as Saka is Arsenal’s left-footed corner taker.
It may be a make-or-break Gameweek for Saka owners as they take on Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea after the international break.
However, the winger feels easy to maintain against Sunderland, especially as he should be the main penalty taker Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) likely sidelined due to injury.
VERDICT: HOLD
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