Relating public finances risk the growth to derail? The plan presented, on Tuesday 15 July, by François Bayrou to reduce the budget deficit to the process of 4.6 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 the visits of a huge shock on the French economy, very vulnerable. The growth may not exceed 0.7 % in 2025 and is expected at 1.2 % in 2026, according to the assumptions that are retained in Bercy. But the announcements of the Prime Minister rebuild the cards because they will weigh both the demand for households and public spending – while companies leave big winners.
“The size and duration of the planned budgetary consolidation would be unprecedented, especially outside an exit phase of a crisis or strong growthObserve Hadrien Camatte and Emilie Gorguet, economists at Natixis, in an analysis remark on this subject. The planned measures to reduce costs are very ambitious, while certain projections of tax increases seem too optimistic – in particular those based on the fight against tax and social fraud. »»
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