BTC Price Slide Triggers Koop-de-Dip Mania but experts warn of deeper lows

Bitcoin has frustrated traders with a sharp pullback that dragged the more than 8% lower compared to the all times of $ 123,800 on 13 August to a recent 13-day low of $ 112,200 on September 22. The decrease, which gradually played in the last six weeks in the past 25 days.

Although some traders can regard this increase in optimism as an early sign of a rebound, Santiment warned that historical patterns suggest otherwise. The prices tend to go opposite the expectations of the crowd, and when retail traders hurry to call a soil, further disadvantage is often needed to rinse the remaining optimism.

Deeper correction next?

The crypto -analyzed company noted That a real market base usually forms alone after the crowd leaves hope and starts to sell with a loss, making it a scene for a sustainable recovery.

Santiment noted that Binance traders briefly reached their highest level of short positioning in more than three months just before the newest red candle from Bitcoin, to turn slightly long after the price decrease.

For a strong upward movement to multiply, the analysis company said that it would rather see a steady period of shorts that is long in the test, because the ultimate liquidation of these bearish bets can help feed a rebound. This means that more traders against Bitcoin have to bet for the conditions of a short squeeze to develop.

Crowd sentiment has also been considerably shifted in recent days. After Bitcoin had gone below $ 114,000, social media interviews quickly changed from euphoric to anxious, although Santiment said that anxiety levels remain too mild to match the deep panic that was seen during earlier market bodems, such as the April trough associated with the American tariff tensions or the decline in the Midden-East.

A sharper peak in fear, what some traders call “blood on the street”, would be a more reliable sign of capitulation. Despite the noisy retail reactions, important on-chain statistics send more constructive signals.

Santiment discovered that the 30 -day market value of Bitcoin to realized value (MVRV) ratio (MVRV), which measures the average profit or loss of short -term holders, has returned to a negative area for the first time since 10 September because a negative MVRV indicates that it is now under water, which is a statistical environment for accumulation.

In the meantime, large investors quietly continue to build their positions. Wallets that hold between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collected a total of 56,372 coins since 27 August. This steady accumulation by large holders often offers a floor for prices, even when the retail sentiment falters.

Pullback seems mild

Another supporting factor is the continuous decline of Bitcoin offering for trade fairs. In the past four weeks, the exchange reserves have fallen by 31,265 BTC, which means a decrease in immediate sales pressure and the amount of coins that is available for rapid liquidation. This shrinking exchange rate balance reinforces the case for a limited disadvantage in the short term.

Santiment therefore said that the current pullback, although frustrating for traders, is relatively modest by historical crypto standards. Bitcoin’s 8% decrord heights decrease compared to the 15% to 20% corrections that usually have forced capitulation during cycles from the past. Without a sharper subtraction or a deeper increase in fear, the conditions for a permanent soil may not be appropriate.

The market seems to be preparing for the next important movement. Retail enthusiasm to buy the dip remains a warning flag that could further fall the prices.