However, it doesn’t appear Bellinger is about to accept a deal. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that the parties do not appear to be close to an agreement, although talks continue. The contract term may be a delay. Kuty wrote that Bellinger and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were likely looking for a six- or seven-year contract. In one MLB Network AppearanceJon Morosi also suggested Bellinger continued to look for a deal within the seven-year window. Morosi added that the Yankees unsurprisingly preferred a four- or five-year deal.
Most external projections predict a five- or six-year deal. MLBTR predicted a five-year contract worth $140 million at the start of the offseason. Bellinger is entering his age-30 season. There is precedent for players taking charge at that age for more than seven years, but the most recent free agent hitter to do so was Brandon Nimmo in 2022. Since the Nimmo deal, there hasn’t even been a six-year contract for a free agent player in his 30s, but Alex Bregman (who was a year older at the time) turned down a six-year offer from the Tigers last winter.
Bellinger has had a fantastic first season in the Bronx. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs over 656 at-bats. He lowered his already low strikeout rate to a personal best of 13.7%. Bellinger’s bat speed and exit velocities — which kept him from commanding a long-term contract two years ago — remain mediocre. His left-handed bat was a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 of his home runs. His .241/.301/.414 road batting line is essentially league average.
While that wouldn’t be much of a problem for the Yankees, they may feel like it will slow down other teams. We’re just a year removed from Bellinger essentially having no trade value when he was signed for two years and $52.5 million. New York acquired him from the Cubs as a journeyman pitcher Cody Poteetthat Chicago cut at the end of Spring Training. The only cost to the Yankees was pocketing nearly $5 million on Bellinger’s deal. Trade talks were complicated by an opt-out clause in his contract, but it’s notable that teams were unwilling to sign for even two years at $25 million per year last season. A commitment of more than six years at a comparable annual value is a significant ask.
Do teams other than the Yankees feel Bellinger is a dramatically different player than he was a year ago? His camp will certainly argue that his success in New York – on top of his previous work in the major markets of Los Angeles and Chicago – should be the deciding factor. Bellinger also isn’t attached to drafting compensation, as he was in 2023 when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cubs.
His results have surpassed his more mediocre batted ball stats in three straight seasons. Bellinger will never recapture the ferocious power he had before injuring his right shoulder during the 2020 postseason. He’s reinvented himself as an elite contact bat, and while the home-road splits aren’t encouraging, his platoon numbers are more impressive.
Bellinger was a .329/.371/.546 hitter against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. Only among lefty hitters with more than 250 plate appearances during that time Jordan Alvarez has a superior slugging sign. Bellinger only follows Alvarez and Juan Soto in on-base percentage. Teams can comfortably use Bellinger as an everyday player at either corner of the outfield, and he is an option for at least semi-regular center field work.
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