Break a wall? Bitcoin faces a key test near a $126,000 trendline

Bitcoin is trading near $121.6K and testing major resistance at $126K. Analysts are looking for a breakout or correction as open interest on futures remains high.

Bitcoin is trading around $121,600 after hitting a new all-time high above $126,000 earlier this week. The asset has slowed and is now moving sideways, just below a major diagonal resistance that has been restraining the price for several months. Analysts are watching to see if Bitcoin can break through or be rejected again.

Meanwhile, the market remains at key levels, while open interest in the futures market remains high.

Bitcoin is struggling with long-term resistance

Bitcoin is facing resistance on a trendline that has held since previous cycle tops. The latest weekly candle shows another rejection near $126,000, followed by a decline of around 5.5%. Earlier this year, similar rejections led to declines of almost 10% and almost 30%.

The difference this time is the size of the pullbacks. Each rejection was smaller than the last. Rekt Capital pointed out that “this trendline appears to be a weakening point of rejection,” indicating that sellers may lose strength at this level.

At the lower terms, Bitcoin is holding just over $121,000. This zone is marked by a previous support level and corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement near $119,550. Daan Crypto Trades noted that this is the area to watch.

$BTC Not here to overcomplicate things.

We saw a sharp push higher and an all-time high sweep.

Currently, the price is consolidating below this diagonal resistance. If that gets broken, I expect this to reach new highs pretty quickly.

The key area to keep below is ~$120,000. If… pic.twitter.com/MK7gYzINWJ

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 10, 2025

The asset is currently consolidating within a tight range. The volume is delayed, which often happens before a larger movement. The trend remains generally bullish. A confirmed higher low would support another leg higher, especially if resistance breaks.

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Bearish scenario still playing out

While near-term sentiment remains positive, some market participants are still cautious. Analyst Ali Martinez shared a scenario where Bitcoin is rejected at $124,000 and begins a correction towards $96,000. If that level fails, the next major support will be around $70,000.

The projected path shows a slow recovery starting in late 2026, with Bitcoin climbing back towards $90,000. This scenario reflects a broader retracement, not a trend reversal, and suggests that the long-term structure may still remain intact.

Futures market remains heated

Data from Glassnode shows that the open interest on futures is still high. This means that many traders are positioned on both the long and short sides. Sharp moves in both directions have led to liquidations. Glassnode said that the market “a lever reset‘ as volatility washes away excess positions.

With Bitcoin just below resistance and leverage still high, traders are keeping a close eye on the price. A move above the current range could open the way to $130,000. If resistance holds, another pullback could extend the current consolidation.