President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Tuesday that starting pitching and shortstop will be prioritized early in the offseason. “We are going to focus on those places,” he told reporters (relayed by David O’Brien of The Athletic). “We’ll see where that leads us, what the acquisition costs are and all that, and then we’ll turn our attention to the bullpen.”
The Braves more or less telegraphed that course of action when they declined their club options on Johnson and Kinley. The latter was particularly surprising, as Kinley could have been retained for $5.5 million. That seemed like a bargain price for a pitcher who had posted a 0.72 ERA in 25 innings after a deadline deal with the Rockies. Johnson seemed like a slightly easier choice given his rough finish to the season, but he was still an overall effective, high-leverage arm over two and a half seasons with the Braves.
Cutting Kinley and Johnson saved the Braves $11.5 million. Another $16 million came off the books after Kim opted out. Some of that will be offset by raises for Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López. The Braves have allocated $176.5 million to 12 players, though they will likely have one of the lightest arbitration classes in the sport. Dylan Lee and Nick Allen may be the only two arbitration-eligible players they offer contracts to, and they would expect a price of less than $4 million between the two.
The Braves started last season with a player salary of around $208 million. They should have a decent amount of spending power to at least make mid-level free agent additions similar to last winter’s Jurickson Profar pickup. Their claim against Kim primarily indicated that they were willing to pay him $16 million. He’s still likely their top target at shortstop, where there simply aren’t many alternatives.
Bo Bichette is the only other free agent who regularly plays the position. He would clearly be much more expensive than Kim. The trade market looks barren, especially if the Nationals don’t want to trade CJ Abrams to a division rival. Maybe there will be a long-term trade option like JP Crawford or Ezequiel Tovar, but the more likely outcome is that the Braves will either have to stick with Allen or trade for an equally low stopgap if they can’t get a Kim deal done.
The rotation currently projects the likes of Sale, Strider, López, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep. That would be an excellent group if all five pitchers made 30+ starts, but that’s not realistic. Everyone except Waldrep missed time last season. López made just one start before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Schwellenbach broke his elbow and missed the second half. Sale is entering his age-37 season. Grant Holmes may or may not be able to pitch due to an elbow sprain. The Braves can’t turn things around with only Bryce Elder, Didier Fuentes and perhaps Alek Manoah as their depth weapons.
Atlanta hasn’t spent much on free agent pitching under Anthopoulos (though they reportedly made a run at Aaron Nola before he re-signed with Philadelphia to a seven-year deal). Could that change this offseason? Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Michael King and Georgia native Zac Gallen are among the more notable free agent starters available.
Luke Weaver and Brad Keller are candidates for the mid-level “reliever to starter” conversion contract that the Braves attempted with López. The Braves have one of the weakest farm systems in the MLB, which would put them at a disadvantage in a bidding war for a most controllable trade candidate like Joe Ryan. However, they could fetch a decent salary on the trade market, perhaps bringing someone like Sonny Gray, Luis Severino, Robbie Ray or Jack Flaherty into play if they’re looking for a source of innings in the middle of the rotation.
By emphasizing the rotation and shortstop, they could look for cheaper bullpen targets later in the winter. Lee, Bummer and Joe Jiménez (who missed all of last season’s rehabilitation knee surgery) are their best internal options at the back. They will need to add at least one right-hander who can pitch in leverage spots as they overhaul the middle-innings group.
#Braves #focused #shortstop #rotation #early #offseason