Michigan overtook Arizona as the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology after the Wildcats’ first loss Monday night at Kansas. The Wolverines, who also have one loss, claim the top spot with a profile that includes the No. 1 ranking in most team sheet metrics used by the selection committee.
The Wildcats are now the No. 2 overall seed after a closely contested 82-78 loss to the Jayhawks, who played without freshman Darryn Peterson. Arizona led by as many as 11 early in the second half before it went cold in a raucous Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas rose to No. 2 in the CBS Sports Bracketology model, ousting a Nebraska team that plays a big game against Purdue on Tuesday. The win was just the latest decisive win for the Jayhawks, who also have victories against Tennessee, Iowa State and Texas Tech.
Even without Darryn Peterson, Kansas shows its ceiling in comeback win against No. 1 Arizona
Erik Bossi
That KU win over Arizona came without Peterson, who is the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA draftmakes it even more impressive. Here’s a look at how the CBS Sports Bracketology model views the top two seeds entering Tuesday’s action. Keep scrolling for a link to the field of 68 and a more detailed explanation of the move following Monday night’s big result.
Bracketology top seeds
See the full field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Why Arizona isn’t No. 1 overall
An argument against Michigan for No. 1 overall could easily focus on the difference between the losses suffered by the Wolverines and the Wildcats. Michigan lost to Wisconsin at home – a Quad 2 loss – while Arizona lost on the road to Kansas in one of college basketball’s most hostile venues in a high-end Quad 1 matchup.
In a hypothetical scenario where both teams arrived on Selection Sunday with one loss, the committee could certainly consider that fact when evaluating who would be ranked first in the overall standings. However, the committee’s mission goes much further than comparing losses.
Michigan has played one fewer game but has a 16-14 edge in total Quad 1/2 wins. The teams have the same number of gold-plated Quad 1A wins (four), and the Wolverines are ranked No. 1 in most of the team sheet statistics the committee will consult in making its decisions.
The Wolverines are tops in predictive metrics like KenPom and Torvik. More importantly, they are #1 in resume-based metrics, including WAB (wins above bubble). Part of the explanation for this can be found in the fact that Arizona has played seven Quad 4 games, compared to just three for Michigan.
In a situation where two teams have similar resumes, the committee might be inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the team that spent less time feasting on Quad 4 opponents. Look no further than the decision in 2024 to give the final No. 1 seed to North Carolina, as opposed to an Iowa State team that many in the Bracketology industry believed deserved more.
The case for Kansas as the No. 2 seed
A five-loss Kansas team sliding past a two-loss Nebraska team for the final No. 2 spot can understandably be annoying in principle. The number of losses has to matter, right? Well, if we covered Saturdaythe loss volume is less relevant than you might think. Just ask Miami (Ohio), which is fighting to qualify for an at-large bid as the last remaining undefeated team in college basketball.
Numerous factors go into the committee’s holistic evaluation of how to place teams in the bracket, including both resume and predictive metrics, which can create situations where the number of losses is usually ignored. Kansas now has seven Quad 1 wins, which is more than anyone not currently in first place, and two more than Nebraska.
The Jayhawks have five wins over teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET (Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Tennessee and NC State). By comparison, Nebraska had two such wins (Illinois and Michigan State). The Jayhawks also outscored the Cornhuskers at KenPom after their win over Arizona.
However, this time of year things are incredibly changeable. A single result can change the picture. As such, the initial projection from the CBS Sports Bracketology model is that Nebraska will return to the No. 2 seed with a win on Tuesday night over the Boilermakers.
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