Seton Hall’s 72-60 loss to Villanova Wednesday night returned the team to the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble and underscored an increasingly bleak reality facing the Big East. If the Pirates don’t get their ship right in the next five weeks, the league will likely send just three teams to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in the past three seasons.
The loss dropped Seton Hall to 16-7 (6-6 Big East) from “Last Four In” status in CBS Sports Bracketology to the First Four Out. It marked the Pirates’ fifth loss in the past seven games since a 14-2 start. The stretch includes three Quad 1 losses – including the Villanova loss – but also includes lower-level Quad 2 losses to Butler and to DePaul.
Even at its peak after a 4-1 start in the league, Seton Hall never rose above No. 43 in KenPom’s ratings, suggesting a decline in the win-loss ledger was likely. It has taken revenge over the past three weeks, contributing to the Big East’s floundering overall profile.
Not all is lost for the Pirates, who are coming off a second-place finish to No. 3 UConn (Feb. 28) and No. 22 St. John’s (March 6) before the Big East Tournament. But looking at the latest field of the CBS Sports Bracketology model, you won’t find the Pirates and you won’t find much Big East representation.
Bracketology top seeds
See the full field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Notable Bracketology Movement
At first glance, Wednesday night’s slate seemed relatively light. It ultimately delivered a blow. While Seton Hall slipped out of the expected field, Oklahoma State rose from the “First Four Out” to become a projected No. 11 seed. his 99-92 upset victory over No. 16 BYU. It was the first Quad 1 win of the season for the Cowboys (16-6, 4-5 Big 12), who also posted quality Quad 2 wins against expected NCAA Tournament teams Texas A&M and UCF.
The most shocking result of the night ended after midnight ET, then No. 6 Gonzaga fell 87-80 in Portland for a Quad 3 loss. The Bulldogs barely kept their spot as the No. 3 seed, although they are now the last No. 3 seed. Part of the explanation for why the Zags didn’t fall to No. 4 can be found in Minneapolis, where Michigan State fell 76-73 at Minnesota. The Spartans may have been equipped to rise and take Gonzaga’s place until they suffered a Quad 2 defeat.
Oddly enough, Gonzaga actually got a Quad 1 win when Thursday’s stats were updated to reflect Wednesday’s results. That’s because Arizona State rose from 80th in the NET to 73rd after its 71-63 win at Utah. As a result, Gonzaga’s win over the Sun Devils on November 14 changed from a Quad 2 win to a Quad 1 win, giving the Zags a 5-1 mark in Quad 1 instead of a 4-1 mark. Overall, Gonzaga fell just one spot (from 13th to 12th) in wins above bubble (WAB).
Revolving door for last No. 1 seed
Our model’s revolving door at the last No. 1 seed took another twist, as UConn replaced Iowa State on the No. 1 seed line. While the Huskies lag behind teams like Iowa State and Illinois in performance metrics (UConn is ranked No. 8 by KenPom), they are squarely ahead of both when it comes to resume-based metrics. At No. 3 in WAB and No. 2 in strength of record, the Huskies are a deserving No. 1 seed. Whether they can keep the spot will depend largely on Friday night’s showdown with No. 22 St. John’s at Madison Square Garden.
Great Eastern Blues
UConn, St. John’s and Villanova are each in great shape heading into the final month of the regular season. But barring a Seton Hall revival, the Big East’s chances of finding a new candidate are getting slimmer by the day. Butler’s 97-87 double-overtime loss at Providence on Wednesday marked the Bulldogs’ third straight loss and pushed them further to the wrong side of the bubble.
Creighton also finds itself trailing by three games after a 6-3 start to regular season play briefly revived the Bluejays’ gloomy expectations. No one else from the Big East is in the NET’s top 80. A year ago, the conference sent five of its 11 teams to the Big Dance. Two years ago it produced just three tournament teams, but there were still three in the NET’s top 60 that were excluded.
This year it ranks as the worst major conference on KenPom. It is the first time since 2021 that the Big East has retained this distinction.
Rematch Rules
Amid conference consolidation and the increase in non-conference matchups between high schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured three potential second-round matchups between conference teams, though none came to fruition.
The committee will still attempt to minimize conference meetings and non-conference retakes, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles allow second-round games between conference teams as long as the teams in question played each other only once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that have met twice prior to the NCAA tournament, the principles state that they may not meet before the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they may not play before the Elite Eight.
Regarding rematches of non-conference games, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the first four and the first round.” The committee will also “seek to avoid out-of-conference rematches in the second round.” But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams at their natural seed line over changing their seed line to avoid a rematch.
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