YANGON, Myanmar and BANGKOK, Jan 6 (IPS) – With thousands of civilians dead in years of civil war and more than 22,000 political prisoners still behind bars, no one was surprised that early results from Myanmar’s first but tightly controlled elections since the 2021 coup show the military’s proxy party speeding to victory.
“How can you hold elections and bomb civilians at the same time?” asked Khin Ohmar, a civil rights activist outside Myanmar who monitors what resistance forces and a shadow government denounce as “sham” polls.
The junta had already paved the way to its stated goal of a “genuine, disciplined democratic multi-party system” by disbanding some 40 parties that refused to register for elections, which they consider illegal, while their leaders and supporters remain in prison.
These include the National League for Democracy (NLD) and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who won a landslide second term in the 2020 elections – only to have the results annulled by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, coup leader and self-proclaimed acting president. Massive street protests were crushed in early 2021 and the war spread across Myanmar.
While these elections will only be a facade of the legitimacy some generals crave, they have succeeded in projecting a power and authority that quickly slipped away just two years ago when long-standing ethnic armed groups and newly formed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) inflicted a series of humiliating defeats on the junta.
“The tide has turned in favor of the military,” said a senior Myanmar analyst in Yangon, who credited China, which reined in ethnic groups on its shared border, fully embraced Min Aung Hlaing and, along with Russia, provided the weapons, technology and training needed to push back the resistance.
The regime’s air force and newly acquired drones have been deployed with ruthlessness, often hitting civilian targets in relatively remote areas where the resistance has grassroots support. As the elections drew closer, airstrikes intensified. Big cities like Yangon were calm; people subjugated.
Bombs dropped on Tabayin township in Sagaing region on December 5, killing 18 people, including many in a busy tea shop, AFP reported. On December 10, airstrikes on a hospital in the old capital of Mrauk-U in Rakhine State reportedly killed ten patients and 23 others. The regime accused the rebel Arakan Army and PDFs of using it as a base.
“I don’t think anyone believes that these elections will be free and fair,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said during a visit to the region ahead of the polls. He called on the junta to end its “deplorable” violence and find “a credible path” back to civilian rule.
By contrast, the Trump administration in November declared the junta’s election plans were “free and fair” and removed Myanmar refugees’ temporary protected status in the US, saying their country was safe to return to.
“I will be jailed if I don’t vote,” said Min, a taxi driver in Yangon, who was only half-joking on the eve of the vote in Yangon, the commercial capital. “And what difference does it make? We are ruled by China and Xi Jinping, not by Min Aung Hlaing,” he added.
Since the polls were spread over three phases, the first 102 townships voted on December 28. Others will follow on January 11 and January 25, for a total of 265 of Myanmar’s 330 townships to vote for the bicameral national parliament and assemblies in the 14 regions and states.
In the other 65 townships that the election commission deemed too unsafe, voting is not allowed at all.
First-round voting in Yangon, an urban and semi-rural sprawl of seven million people, was calm and slow on a quiet Sunday — despite intense efforts and sometimes threats from the regime to boost turnout.
In 2020 and 2015 – when Myanmar held arguably the most open and fair elections in the region and the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) suffered a sound defeat – people gleefully posted images of their ink-stained pinkies on social media as proof of their vote after weeks of crowded rallies and lively campaign rallies.
But not this time. Posts on social media insulted the regime, sometimes comically and vulgarly. Those who were eager to support the boycott of the resistance but feared reprisals were relieved to discover that their names had been accidentally omitted from the electoral lists. Electronic voting machines first in use made it impossible to get a blank.
But as in previous elections, a solid core of people close to the military and its web of powerful economic interests turned out to vote for the USDP.
“We choose our government,” declared a man as he left a polling station in central Yangon with his family, apparently supporters of the USDP. One proudly waved his little finger, dipped in indelible ink.
How can you hold elections and bomb civilians at the same time? – Khin Ohmar, civil rights activist
The turnout for the first round was estimated by regime officials at 52 percent. This compares with around 70 percent during the past two elections. China’s special envoy – sent as an official observer, along with others from Russia, Belarus, Vietnam and Cambodia – praised the elections.
On January 2, the election commission unexpectedly published partial results: the USDP, led by retired generals, had won 38 of the 40 seats in the lower house where votes had been counted so far. Nobody blinked.
The USDP campaign’s message focused on two main elements: get out and vote with your entire family, and support a USDP government to restore stability and progress in Myanmar.
The underlying message was a reminder that the last USDP government, led by President Thein Sein, implemented socio-economic and political reforms and ceasefire negotiations with ethnic groups after winning a large majority in the 2010 elections, when the NLD and other opposition groups were also absent.
Aung San Suu Kyi, then under house arrest, was released just after the 2010 elections and went on to contest and win a seat in the 2012 midterm elections, prior to the NLD’s landslide victory in 2015. Aung San Suu Kyi ruled for the next five years in a difficult power-sharing arrangement with the military and was thrown back into prison during the coup.
Currently, much of Myanmar’s population lives in junta-controlled areas, including all 14 state and regional capitals, which have been swollen by an influx of people fleeing the conflict. The military also controls major seaports and airports and – to varying degrees – the main border crossings for China and Thailand.
But in terms of territory, more than half of Myanmar is in the hands of various ethnic armed groups and resistance forces. Alliances are fluid and negotiable.
The shadow government of National Unity is trying to establish its own authority over liberated territory and trying to build a consensus around the concept of a democratic and federal Myanmar, free from military interference – something that has eluded the country since its independence from British colonial rule in 1948.
The front lines are shifting back and forth as the military struggles to regain control of the core area of Bamar in central Myanmar, once considered their bastion, while stretching out elsewhere after losing large swaths of border territory since the coup. Millions of people have fled the country or are internally displaced.
Once again, there is speculation that “easy” elections and the formation of a USDP government in April will lead to a gesture of confidence from the military, such as a possible end to forced conscription and the release of some political prisoners. Project power and then accumulate legitimacy.
“Political prisoners are being used as bait,” said Khin Ohmar, the civil rights activist in Bangkok. “The world should at least applaud.”
IPS UN office report
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