Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, made just two starts in 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was still recovering when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline. They believed he could raise the ceiling of their starting rotation when he finally returned – and they were right.
The right-hander pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in seven starts. He struck out nearly one batter per inning while keeping his walks in check. Bieber looked and performed like the pitcher the front office was hoping to acquire in the deal.
WELCOME BACK, BIEBS! OFFICIAL: RHP Shane Bieber has exercised his player option for the 2026 season.
So, with all that said, what can the Blue Jays actually expect from Bieber in 2026?
Probably not the version of him who struck out 259 batters in 2019 or posted a 1.63 ERA during the COVID-shortened season. The statistics of most pitchers from that era are skewed due to the then-widespread use of sticky tack that MLB has since banned. That younger version of Bieber also averaged 90 mph on his fastball, compared to 90 mph in 2025.
Bieber’s 2023 stats – an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.23 – feel like a more realistic projection to him, especially considering his xERA (4.51) and FIP (4.47) from last year. However, proper off-season and spring training should help offset some of that implied decline. Bieber should be sharper now that he’s further away from his surgery.
The Blue Jays will happily take an ERA from their third starter behind Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman around 4:00. The bigger question with Bieber for 2026 is how many innings he will actually throw.
Bieber threw 200 innings in 2022, but only 128 the following year. He threw a total of 59 innings in 2025 between the regular season and the playoffs. It seems extremely unlikely that Bieber would reach 200 innings again in 2026, but could he reach 150 or 160? That would probably be the best case scenario for everyone. The Blue Jays were able to carefully manage his workload in April and May, allowing him to get back on track.
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