Blue Jays: What the projections say for Trey Yesavage in 2026

Blue Jays: What the projections say for Trey Yesavage in 2026

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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage is coming off a storybook first season in professional baseball that exceeded the high expectations placed on him as a 2024 first-round draft pick. He progressed through all four levels of the minor leagues and put himself in position for a late-season call-up to the majors, an unforgettable stretch run and a postseason that captured the hearts of Jay’s fans around the world.

The 22-year-old started his pro career in Single-A Dunedin with a plan to move up to High-A Vancouver when the weather warmed up. Yesavage made seven appearances (all starts) with Dunedin, showing he was ready to progress. The 20th overall pick went 3-0 with a 2.43 and a whopping 55 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings (14.9 K/9).

The right-hander’s next stop was with the Vancouver Canadians, and he continued to show that he belonged at the next level. Yesavage made just four starts on the West Coast, striking out 33 batters over just 17 1/3 innings with a minuscule 1.56 ERA. From there he moved on to Double-A New Hampshire, where he didn’t dominate as thoroughly as at the other levels but still managed 46 Ks over 30 frames with a 4.50 ERA. That was enough for the front office to move the top prospect to the highest level of the minors, the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons.

Trey Yesavage started the year pitching to less than 400 fans in A-ball. He ended it by one #WorldSeries rookie record with 12 strikeouts in his last start 🤯

TRƈY BIEN šŸ‘ Yesavage is listed as one of @MLB‘s Top Rookies after its electric Postseason!

What Yesavage did there put him in talks to join the Blue Jays in September. Despite being more than six years younger than the average player in that league, the former East Carolina star was unflappable. He recorded another 26 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings, posted a 3.63 ERA and was eligible for promotion to the Majors late in the season. He displayed an unorthodox, over-the-top performance that stunned hitters and helped him amass an extraordinary K-rate.

On September 15, Yesavage made his MLB debut and resumed his rare swing-and-miss stuff, scattering three hits and one earned run over five innings with nine strikeouts. He stumbled in his next outing by allowing four earned runs in four innings, but rebounded with five solid innings in his final regular season start, earning his first big league victory.

That set the stage for a magical postseason run that further endeared Yesavage to Jays fans. There was his no-hit, 11-strikeout tour de force against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, followed by his infamous “I was built for this!” quote during the post-game interview with Hazel Mae. He saved his best start for his last: a seven-inning, 8-mile masterpiece that helped the Blue Jays win Game 5 of the World Series.

What the projections say for Yesvage in 2026

Baseball reference

According to Baseball Reference’s projection, Yesavage goes 4-3 with a 3.90 ERA with 67 strikeouts over 67 innings. This innings limit is a little less than other projection systems, but that’s due to BR’s use of the “Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System,” which uses recent baseball history for projections, with recent data being weighted more heavily.

Under this projection, Yesavage will either become more of a bullpen arm or the rotation will be limited to roughly 10-15 starts in 2026. Considering he’ll likely be a key rotation piece this season, and there’s no indication the Jays will limit his innings, everything else could be more reliable.

DC/Steamboat Fan Charts

Steamer has Yesavage making 24 starts, going 9-8 with a 3.82 ERA and 2.1 WAR in 147 innings pitched.

He averaged a 9.92 K/9 with a 26% strikeout rate, 3.66 BB/9, a .292 BABIP and a 3.86 FIP. This model predicts that Yesavage will make 24 of a possible 32 starts and be a regular member of the rotation.

ATC/THE BAT/OOPSY

It’s interesting to look at these additional Fangraphs projections together, as they offer some similarities and differences.

They all have a rookie making 24 starts, and ATC and THE BAT are both predicting 135 innings, while OOPSY is significantly higher at 149. OOPSY likes Yesavage’s strikeout potential with a projected 10.81 K/9. THE BAT is more conservative at 9.07, and ATC is in between at 9.87. The ERA statistic is also a sliding scale, with OOPSY the lowest (3.48), followed by ATC (3.89) and THE BAt at 4.17.


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