Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3 prediction: ALCS prop bet, picks the best bet

For all the hoopla about the Mariners not having the legs for their pitching, their rotation has led to this point.

As Seattle looks to push Toronto to a 3-0 mark at home for Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday night, the starting rotation has strung together a 2.38 ERA.

George Kirby’s pair of no-decisions in the Mariners’ five-game division series conquest of the Tigers accounted for 10 innings of that. Between those two starts, the right-hander posted a 35% strikeout rate, striking out at least six batters in five innings per.

This is more impressive the closer you look. In Friday’s 15-inning classic, he needed just 66 pitches to record six strikeouts. Back home in Seattle with a series lead, we can expect more room to play for Kirby – especially after an extra day of rest for the bullpen.

Kirby is not tagged as a strikeout pitcher. However, it is interesting that of his six-pitch arsenal, four offerings have a scent rate of over 30%.

He just completed the best strikeout season of his career with 9.8 K/9.

Can Kirby have the same effect against a Blue Jays team that finished the regular season with the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball?

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Toronto is one of the most aggressive lineups in the game this year, especially on fastballs. If Kirby can establish an early lead in the count, his elite service pitch is his fastball, which has turned away hitters at a 23.4% clip.

Then there’s his slider, a pitch that 31.2% of players sniff, and one that the Jays have yet to make good contact with.

It comes down to how well he can feel the zone. If Kirby’s four years in the majors have proven them to have elite insight into anything, it’s command; he finished 2025 with a 4.72 K/BB.

He has cashed in the Over for this line in five straight starts – two of them with double-digit strikeouts – and 60% through 2025.

THE GAME: George Kirby Over 4.5 strikeouts (-114 at FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on choices that reflect market value while following trends to limit risks.