Scherzer’s fastball averaged 93 mph last season. That’s a tick higher than his 2024 level, reversing a slight downward trend in his velocity in his late 30s. Nevertheless, he struggled to get hitters to chase his breaking pitches outside the strike zone. Scherzer clearly doesn’t have the same caliber as he did at his peak, making him more hitable when forced to challenge hitters. He has allowed a higher-than-average number of home runs in three straight seasons.
At 41 years old, Scherzer profiles himself on paper as a back-end starter. Yet he has a wealth of experience in the big games and has shown he is still capable of scoring on the biggest stage. The Jays left Scherzer off the roster for their Division Series game with the Yankees. They brought him back for the AL Championship Series against Seattle and the World Series showdown with the Dodgers.
Scherzer threw 5 2/3 frames of two-run ball to earn the victory in ALCS Game 4. He struggled a bit in Game 3 of the World Series before coming back with one run allowed in 4 1/3 innings in Game 7. Scherzer left the mound with a 3–1 lead in a performance that would have been etched in Toronto sports history had the bullpen been in charge.
They aim to cross the threshold in 2026. Assuming Scherzer builds up in time for Opening Day, he will likely find himself in a six-man rotation to start the season. Shane Bieber starts the year on the injured list after experiencing fatigue in his forearms during the playoff run. Toronto would open the season with a starting five of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce.
Yesavage is entering his first full MLB season. Ponce is a bit of a wild card upon his return from Korea. Scherzer probably won’t log more than 150 innings at this stage of his career. By starting with a six-man rotation, the Jays could take some of the burden off a rotation that was carrying as heavy a load as possible until October.
However, that has a trickle-down impact on the bullpen. The 13-pitcher limit means the Jays would have a seven-man bullpen if they went this route. That increases the importance of having a quality long reliever like Eric Lauer to handle multiple innings.
At the same time, this makes it less likely that Lauer has a shot at a rotation spot. The southpaw is an impending free agent and said he would rather a starting option. There’s no indication Lauer would seek a trade if the Jays keep him in a relief role, though the southpaw said Mitch Bannon of The Athletic he believes pitching out of the bullpen cost him money in arbitration last season. Lauer lost his hearing, meaning he will earn the team’s desired salary of $4.4 million instead of his camp’s stated figure of $5.75 million.
That could be a situation worth keeping an eye on if everyone stays healthy closer to Opening Day. For now, this seems like the ideal outcome for both the Jays and Scherzer. The $3 million base salary will bring the luxury tax payroll to approximately $319 million, according to franchise records Grid source. The Jays are taxed at a rate of 90% on expenses over $304 million. This signing comes with a base tax of $2.7 million. Earned performance bonuses are part of a team’s CBT calculation, so the Jays would also pay that 90% fee on any dollars Scherzer unlocks by achieving innings milestones throughout the year.
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