Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has risen to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 in 2025. But in almost every other respect, he’s been great. It has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t great, but he has struck out. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s while also having a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.
Although Cease made his debut in 2019, he has never actually been on the Major League injured list aside from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has made at least 32 touches in every full season since. In total, he has made 174 starts since the start of 2020, leading all Major League pitchers. However, he generally doesn’t pitch deep in games, so he ranks ninth in innings pitched in that span.
In addition to the quantity, the quality was strong. For that same period in 2020-25, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His walk rate of 9.9% was a bit high, but he struck out 28.9% of batters while facing a swinging strike rate of 14.4%.
As mentioned, his ERA has wavered in recent years, but that has happened while other elements of his game have remained more consistent. He even saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. He finished second in the American League with the White Sox at the time. Cy Young voted in favor Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024, and then rose again to 4.55 this year.
But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates were less volatile. His strikeout rate dropped from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then rose to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His walk rate of 10.4% in 2022 dropped to 10.1% and 8.5% over the next two years, followed by a slight increase to 9.8% in 2025.
His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck-based, is more in sync with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290, but Cease dipped to .260 in that 2022 season. It then turned the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA rose, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.
As such, ERA estimators believe Cease is much more stable than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA stood at 3.48 in 2022, jumped slightly to 4.10 in 2023 and then stood at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.
While deliberating on our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had a lot of debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or whether teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. Ultimately, we chose the latter and predicted a seven-year deal worth $189 million. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, although it’s possible the delay will ultimately bring the net present value closer to that projection.
The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years as they cruised all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, eventually falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with a lot of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt And Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16 million player option, but he seemed likely to decline and go for a $4 million buyout instead. In the long run Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. Jose Berrios has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.
In recent weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved significantly. Trey Yesavage came along late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to activate his player option and stay with the Jays for another year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long haul.
That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann And Bowden Francis also in the mix. While Bieber and Gausman will leave after the upcoming campaign, and Berríos may join them, Cease could serve as a bridge to another era. By then it will be possible Jake Blossom has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Outlook such as Gage Stanifer And Johnny King could also have come into the picture by then.
Toronto is paying a significant cost to sign Cease as a long-term anchor. Grid source projected their 2026 salary to be around $232 million, while their luxury tax number was right around the base threshold of $244 million. It won’t be clear how much either figure increases until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the average annual value of the contract, so the salary breakdown does not matter for tax purposes, but the deferral will reduce the actual value of the contract to some extent.
In any case, the Jays will clearly start paying the tax in 2026, and this will push them past the initial surcharge level of $264 million. They are in CBT territory for the second consecutive season, meaning they will be taxed at a 30% rate on their first $20 million in surpluses. They say a 42% tax on spending between $264 million and $284 million, 75% on spending between $284 million and $304 million, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself will carry somewhere between $6 million and $10 million in tax liabilities (depending on the post-deferral value), but the penalties would increase with each more significant addition.
The Jays are almost certainly not done yet. They are loosely connected Kyle Tucker and definitely interested in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this season’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play after the Cease deal. They have also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who would push Jeff Hofman in a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.
Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays face the highest penalty for signing a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They will surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1 million from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they are entitled to the lowest form of compensation – a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another one if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.
Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.
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