Rogers, who celebrates his 35th birthday next week, will get a significant payday to pitch in the back of Toronto’s bullpen. One of the sport’s most distinctive pitchers, Rogers is a soft-throwing submarine who bided his time while waiting for an MLB opportunity. He was picked in the 10th round by the Giants in 2013, signing for $7,500 after his senior season at Austin Peay State University. Rogers spent the next six years in the minor leagues, performing well all the way through Triple-A, but without the raw stuff to get the big league club’s attention.
It wasn’t until the end of Rogers’ third full season in Triple-A that he got an MLB look. He was approaching his 29th birthday and was about to retire from a career as a firefighter (as Alex Pavlović of NBC Sports Bay Area covered in 2020). The Giants finally gave him a shot at the end of the ’19 season. Rogers pitched 17 2/3 innings with three runs to hold onto his roster spot. He broke camp the following year and never returned to the minors – not even during a rehab stint.
Rogers has played more than six seasons in the major leagues without being on the injured list. While there is clearly a bit of luck involved in avoiding accidental injuries, it is clear that his underhand delivery puts less stress on his arm. Rogers has played 403 games since the start of the 2020 season. That’s thirty more than any other pitcher. Most of those outings have come in high-leverage situations, as his arm angle continues to frustrate hitters.
After averaging 4.50 as a rookie, Rogers has posted a 3.04 or better grade in four of the past five seasons. He ranks near the bottom of the league in gadgets and has never posted a league-average strikeout rate. That’s to be expected for a pitcher who throws an 82-83 MPH sinker and a sweeping breaking ball that clocks in at around 74 MPH. It is a profile designed for weak ground ball contact. Rogers gets that year after year, and he almost never puts batters on base on balls.
While some pitchers with extremely low arm slots may have trouble facing opposing hitters, that hasn’t been a problem for Rogers. He has held lefties to a .235/.289/.336 line in 776 career plate appearances. Right-handed hitters haven’t fared much better, hitting .246/.282/.350 in nearly 1,000 trips to the plate.
Rogers has spent most of his career in San Francisco, including a two-year stint overlapping with his twin brother Taylor Rogers. The Giants dropped out of contention shortly before the trade deadline, sending the impending free agent to the Mets for middle reliever Jose Butto and prospects Blade Tidwell And Drew Gilbert. Rogers continued to produce results in his new home, pitching 27 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. He finished the season with a career-high 1.98 average behind a 62.1% grounder rate while leading the MLB with 81 appearances.
Unsurprisingly, the Mets wanted Rogers back, but they balked at what turned out to be a surprisingly lucrative contract. He more than doubled MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18 million deal. New York has seen it too Edwin Diaz, Gregory Soto And Ryan Helsley sign elsewhere. They added Devin Williams to close, but you will have to find several set-up arms from the right side.
That is the role Rogers must continue to fill with the Jays. Toronto was open to a replacement Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning, but they couldn’t get away with Díaz, Raisel Iglesias or Robert Suarez. Rogers had a brief stint as San Francisco’s closer in 2021, but was otherwise a setup man. He finished fourth in the MLB with 32 wins this past season and handily leads the majors in that category for the past six years. Rogers agrees Louis Varland as the best leverage arms for Hoffman.
The Jays could still try to add a better left-hander then Brendon Kleinbut Rogers becomes the fifth member of their projected bullpen who cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. Hofman, Yimi Garcia And Eric Lauer all have more than five years of service to refuse any minor league assignment. Tommy Nance has no more options. Varland may be optioned, but is certainly not in danger of being sent down. If the Jays have all six starters healthy going into the season, that leaves only one spot for Little or another left-handed acquisition. That doesn’t say anything about the out-of-options Justin Brouwel and Rule 5 choices Bastard angel And Spencer Miles — all of whom face an uphill battle to stay on the roster.
Those are secondary considerations for an all-in Toronto team. The average annual value of $12.333 million pushes their estimated luxury tax number to $294 million, as calculated by Grid source. That’s easily a franchise high before you even consider the feature they’re adding Kyle Tucker or return Bo Bichette.
This will be their second consecutive season of paying the competitive balance tax. They will be hit with a 42% tax on expenditures between $264 million and $284 million, and will be taxed at a rate of 75% from $284 million to $304 million. Any spend above the final threshold will incur a 90% penalty. The Rogers deal comes with a tax bill of about $8 million to $9 million. It also pushes them firmly past the $284 million mark, moving their top pick in the 2027 draft back 10 spots (although that was basically inevitable after the 2027 draft). Dylan stops And Cody Ponce signings).
It’s a significant investment in a 35-year-old reliever. The Braves also went to three years, at $15 million per year, to sign Suarez on Thursday. That was the first three-year contract for a reliever that age since 2020. Since then, there hasn’t been a three-year term worth more than $10 million per season for a 35-year-old bullpen arm. Mariano Rivera almost two decades ago. A closer that sits around 99 MPH, Suarez breaking that precedent wasn’t too surprising. The Jays are betting on Rogers’ unconventional style to age just as well.
Image courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images.
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