Valdez may be the last impact player available on the open market. He is certainly the remaining player with the highest lead. There is a decent roster of unsigned starting pitchers, but most other players fit in the middle or back of the rotation. That includes Zac Gallenthe only other free agent to decline a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a high-end #2 starter and has ace potential.
The southpaw finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting every season from 2022 to 2024. He looked at that pace at last year’s All-Star Break and averaged a 2.75 over 19 starts. Things spiraled out of control in the second half, as Valdez posted a 5.20 ERA in his last twelve starts. He also had the much-discussed cross-up incident with the third catcher Cesar Salazaras he came under fire for not showing much immediate concern after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials insisted they did not believe Valdez intentionally cross-checked the catcher, and Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the situation.
Regardless, Valdez hit the market and had perhaps his worst two-month run in years. He is entering his age-32 season, an age where free agent deals of more than five years are rare for starting pitchers. Blake Snell And Jacob de Grom are the only pitchers aged 32 or older to sign a five-year contract in the past decade. It’s not clear what Valdez was looking for at the start of the offseason, but it generally doesn’t bode well for the player markets if they aren’t signed by February. A short-term deal with opt-outs probably isn’t as attractive for Valdez as it would be for a younger free agent.
The Jays are already six deep in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce And Jose Berrios. They have broad involvement with every top free agent, so it’s possible they’ll circle back to see if Valdez’s market has dropped to a level where they feel the value is too good to ignore. Bieber is suffering from elbow fatigue. Yesavage had some injury questions in college and just completed his first full professional season. Ponce is an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30 million if they didn’t think he could be an effective starter.
Toronto could certainly justify taking this group into the season, but they are apparently still playing with rotation options. Heyman said on one MLB Network Appearance this afternoon that the Jays have some interest in Max Scherzer back. That would clearly be a much cheaper move than even a short-term deal for Valdez, but Scherzer isn’t as clearly an upgrade of an upgrade over Toronto’s back-end arms.
Grid source calculates the Jays’ luxury tax salary at around $310 million. That’s already a franchise record and puts them at the highest level of punishment. The Jays are close to the Yankees and Phillies, rounding out a clear top five in expected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would likely give them almost $340 million in CBT commitments, which would put them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They would pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any further free agent contracts. A hypothetical $30 million salary for Valdez would add another $27 million to their tax bill for a total investment of $57 million.
Valdez is attached to compensatory damages, although that punishment isn’t as severe for the Jays because they already signed Cease. Toronto rejected their second-round pick and their compensatory pick Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They would give up their third and fifth round picks for Valdez, but they all fall outside the top 100 overall.
Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they won’t get a compensatory pick until round four once Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s all but inevitable, as they never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits team personnel from explicitly saying they are not pursuing specific players, but Houston General Manager Dana Brown reiterated this afternoon that the Astros “have not had any conversations recently” with the pitching camp (video via KHOU 11 News’ Jason Bristol).
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