There has been a lot of speculation that the Jays could be Tucker’s eventual landing spot. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote yesterday that two of his sources pegged Toronto as the favorite for the best player on the market. In the meantime, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports tonight that the Jays are putting more pressure on Tucker than they had earlier in the winter. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith adds that the parties have had recent talks, although he suggests the door remains open for Tucker or Bichette. Toronto’s interest in Tucker dates back to the start of the offseason; he visited the club’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin on December 3.
Grid source calculates the Jays’ payroll at around $280 million, which is already $40 million higher than where they opened the 2025 season. Their luxury tax estimate is $308 million, more than $20 million north of last year’s end-of-season tax number. They are above the $304 million mark, which represents the highest level of punishment. That already puts them on track to pay about $30 million in luxury taxes, more than all but four teams (the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies) paid last season. All future expenses are taxed at a rate of 90% of the average annual value. A hypothetical AAV of $35 million for Tucker would come with a tax of $31.5 million.
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It’s unclear how much of a deterrent effect the tax obligations will have on the Jays. They’re already in uncharted financial waters after being inches away from their first World Series in three decades. The Rogers ownership group and front office are clearly committed to a win-now attitude. George Springer, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman And Daulton Varsho will all be free agents next season. That’s a lot of money coming off the books, but also four key contributors they’re not guaranteed to have in 2027, which should only increase the motivation to make another run this year.
A career .273/.358/.507 hitter, Tucker is the best offensive player around. He would step into an everyday right field role and push Anthony Santander to the left. The Jays would have Springer as their primary designated hitter. Okamoto and Addison Barger could play third base or corner outfield. There wouldn’t be much playing time left Nathan Lucaswhich would be a speculative trading candidate. Lukes is having a solid season (.255/.323/.407 with 12 home runs), but isn’t the kind of player to keep teams from making a run on a star.
Managing director Ross Atkins spoke in general terms this morning about the team’s commitment to finding continuous ways to improve (link via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith). Atkins noted that any “addition at this point starts to shorten the playing time of players who we feel are very good Major League pieces.” While it’s not obvious that they will make moves, that would seemingly indicate that they are only pursuing strong impact talent rather than focusing on marginal upgrades over role players.
If the Jays were to land Tucker, it would almost certainly close the door on a reunion with Bichette. One team signing its top three free agents in an offseason is essentially unprecedented, and adding both players would push Toronto’s luxury tax number well above $350 million. Indeed, Bannon suggests that while the Jays aren’t out of the running for Bichette just yet, a new deal with their longtime shortstop seems less likely after Okamoto’s signing.
Okamoto and/or Barger regularly play third base Ernie Clemens to second, where Bichette would likely be entered if he returns to Rogers Centre. The bigger deterrent may simply be the team’s unwillingness to commit to Bichette long-term. Bannon writes that a reunion could be more likely if the infielder settles for a shorter deal, allowing him to opt out after the first season.
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