Bitcoin’s Risk Signal Weakens: Is the Market Finally Learning to Deal with Volatility?

Bitcoin is absorbing volatility better than before, but the cost basis zone remains crucial for continued upside potential.

Although Bitcoin rose above $125,000 in the first week of October 2025, its six-year “Uptober” winning streak may still be in jeopardy. Historically, October has delivered strong returns since 2013, with only two red years, 2014 and 2018, and uninterrupted gains from 2019 through 2024.

However, with only a few hours to go before the month-end close, the data suggests this could break this pattern. New indicators warn that Bitcoin must soon regain holders’ cost basis zone to avoid renewed downward pressure and a possible extension of the current correction phase.

Deep fear of correction lurks

According to Bitcoin Vector, the Risk-Off signal weakens every time BTC revisits the $106,000-$108,000 range, showing that volatility shocks are absorbed more effectively, a sign of a mature market. Nevertheless, the company warns that maintaining this stability depends on regaining the holders’ cost zone in the short term. Without that recovery, bearish pressure could increase again, ultimately deepening the existing correction cycle.

Meanwhile, Axel Adler Jr. be that Bitcoin’s current stagnation stems from a wave of profit-taking by long-term holders (LTHs). Data shows that this cohort of investors has sold approximately 810,000 BTC since July 1, reducing their holdings from 15.5 million to 14.6 million. Despite that selling pressure, Bitcoin still reached two new all-time highs as market demand remained strong. Adler added that if LTHs continue to sell off coins, Bitcoin’s price growth could remain limited, which could keep pressure on the market’s bullish potential for the foreseeable future.

In a related development, also CryptoQuant found that long-term Bitcoin whales, veteran investors who have weathered multiple market cycles, have realized one of their biggest gains of 2025, worth approximately $271 million. This is the third major profit spike of the year. Such events often lead to sharp price movements as liquidity adjusts to whale activity. Analysts believe that whales are either anticipating a short-term downtrend or looking to rebalance their positions.

The next key signal lies with short-term holders: if they absorb these gains, consolidation could follow, and if selling accelerates, a broader market cooldown could occur.

Target of $123,000 if Bulls hold the line

In a statement to CryptoPotatoArthur Azizov, founder and investor at B2 Ventures, said Bitcoin is currently trading within a range, having made a sideways move since July 2025. The asset recently bounced off the lower end of this range, in what appeared to be a potential start to a recovery.

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If broader market conditions remain favorable, Azizov expects Bitcoin to move towards $123,000 and possibly retest its all-time high before the end of the year. However, if Bitcoin falls below the crucial $100,000 level and consolidates there, it could extend its decline towards the $96,000-$93,000 zone. The founder added that $100,000 remains a psychologically important threshold and strong support area, just as it was in June 2025 when Bitcoin recovered from similar levels. He added:

“Looking at the most recent upward wave, which started in April 2025, the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 is around $91,000. Interestingly, that level also corresponds to a weekly imbalance zone, making it a potentially powerful reversal area if the price ever gets to that point. That said, I don’t believe Bitcoin will fall that low – there are simply too many factors supporting the asset at the moment, preventing such a deep pullback.”