Bitcoin’s (BTC) famous four-year cycle may finally be crumbling

Bitcoin’s 1,080-day cycle may be breaking as experts point to weak sentiment and early selling that have disrupted historical halving patterns.

Traditionally, Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after a halving. The most recent occurred in April 2024. If that historical pattern were to repeat, Melker said, a market top would be expected between April and October 2025.

However, he pointed out that the current market lacks the typical “mania phase.” Moreover, altcoins are still emerging and investor sentiment remains weak. According to his analysis, many traders either sold early or sat on the sidelines.

Bitcoin breaks free from old patterns

Milker suggested that investors’ attempts to advance the four-year cycle may have changed or ‘broken’ it, and that once early selling pressure subsides, Bitcoin could begin to follow a more mature, liquidity-driven trajectory out to 2026.

“Eventually, the four-year cycle will break – if not now, then probably next time. Whether that means Bitcoin entering a new era of institutional flows and real-world adoption, or simply rewriting its pattern, is what makes this moment so fascinating.”

A similar perspective was shared last month by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, when he argued that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle is becoming outdated. He then claimed that the current bull market could last much longer due to accommodative global monetary policy and rejected the rigid application of the four-year cycle, claiming that traders are overlooking the real factors such as liquidity conditions and credit trends in the US and China.

Hayes explained that previous Bitcoin spikes were more related to a tightening of dollar and yuan lending than halving schedules, suggesting the current situation is fundamentally different.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle outdated?

More recently, PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s well-known stock-to-flow model, has also begun to question the cycle. Responding to bearish views that $126,000 marked the market top and that 2026 will usher in a bear phase, he called such assumptions a “big misunderstanding.”

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PlanB argued that just three completed cycles are insufficient to establish a reliable pattern and emphasized that it is “absolutely not guaranteed” that Bitcoin will peak 18 months after a halving, which would imply October 2025.

He suggested that the next market top could just as easily happen in 2026, 2027 or even 2028, adding that he is now focusing more on Bitcoin’s average price levels than short-term peaks and troughs. According to him, the market has yet to undergo a “fundamental phase transition,” which could lead to a big rally or a more stable, institutionally influenced regime – both outcomes he sees as bullish.