Bitcoin’s big move is coming: will it be $100,000 or $75,000?

Bitcoin is nearing the end of a six-week triangle pattern, with traders looking for a breakout towards $100,000 or a decline towards $70,000-$75,000.

Price structure signals pressure build-up

Over the past month and a half, Bitcoin has formed a symmetrical triangle, reflecting an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with the range shrinking every week. The current setup indicates that the price is approaching a point where this equilibrium will end, probably with a sharp move in either direction.

Analyst De Swingtrader posted,

“Bitcoin has formed a very tight flag over the past six weeks… A breakout targets a 15% move to $100,000 resistance.”

Based on the range of the triangle, a breakout could send Bitcoin as high as $100,500. A failure, on the other hand, could lead to a 15% drop towards $75,000.

Meanwhile, Titan from Crypto shared a chart showing Bitcoin in a clear accumulation range between $80,000 and $94,000. The post explained that the short-term price may depend on which liquidity area is occupied first, above or below the range.

“If the upper pool is taken first, the likelihood of a bearish continuation increases,” the post said.

Some traders expect a decline before there is a sustainable recovery. Jason Pizzino offered a similar short-term view: pointing to a bear flag pattern after the recent decline. If this pattern breaks to the downside, Bitcoin could head towards $70,000-$76,000.

Big buyers are adding to Bitcoin holdings

Despite the quiet interest from the retail sector, institutional activity has continued. Lark Davis reported that public companies now own more than 1.09 million BTC, or about 5.1% of the supply. Strategy, which recently added 1,229 BTC, now owns a total of 672,497 BTC. Metaplanet bought another 4,279 BTC in December, bringing the total to 35,102.

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Other companies, including Bitdeer Technologies, Anap Holdings and Cango Inc., have also made purchases. These investments come as the market remains uncertain around the $88,000 mark, with no clear breakout yet.

Technical momentum offers conflicting evidence

Some market indicators are starting to shift. Ash Crypto reported that the MACD is now at the level last seen at the 2022 low and showing a bullish divergence. This could indicate that the downward pressure is decreasing. Still, the price has struggled to stay above $90,000 in recent weeks.

Bitcoin sends two bullish signals

– Bitcoin’s MACD has returned to levels last seen at the bottom of the 2022 bear market. The bottom may be close.

– The current market structure represents a clear bullish divergence on the MACD

If the traditional four-year cycle is indeed broken,… pic.twitter.com/8vhN6DhM6N

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) December 30, 2025

A long-term forecast from Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi sees potential for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2026. For now, BTC remains compressed within its triangle, and traders are looking forward to a move that could set the tone for early 2026.